The McStay Family Disappearance

Update to this post dated 1/31/2012: This is a post I did very early in the case and no longer reflects all the information now made available to the public, so my own theories about this case have shifted somewhat.

I have not been able to verify Patrick McStay's current status. Numerous people have left comments stating he was successfully extradited from Texas to New Orleans to face charges on alleged financial improprieties. I've heard conflicting reports about whether or not he posted bail. Most seemed to think he was still being held, which makes me wonder if bail was set prohibitively high since he had previously been a fugitive with regard to the Louisiana warrant. If anyone has media or press confirmation (please don't leave any unsourced comments or I'll just delete them) as to his current status I'd be interested to hear. Also, if anyone knows the exact nature of the charges or if any additional charges have been filed--particularly if any of these charges were related to the McStay family disappearance. I'm doubting the latter is the case and am leaning towards the idea that P.M.'s legal woes are probably separate problems from any problems which might have been the reason for the McStays' disappearance. But we will see what we will see, I guess. For the record, as of this date, I believe the McStays are all alive and well, and that they disappeared of their own volition. For my reasons regarding this, just go to the homepage of this blog and look at the left hand side for the most read blog posts on this site and you'll see several other posts I did exploring several diverse theories which I feel are plausible explanations of the reasons for the family's disappearance.


12/28/2011 MCSTAYS UPDATE: I just put these two things together tonight: Does this creep you out the way it creeped me out?

IMPORTANT UPDATE ON MCSTAYS CASE: PATRICK ROBERT MCSTAY SOUGHT BY LOUISIANA LAW ENFORCMENT: WARRANT ISSUED. This might be the key to solving the mystery of the McStays' disappearance. Or it may prove to be unrelated.

Someone commented tonight that they agreed with me about the likely fate of Lee Cutler.

I wish it weren't so, but I think he's in the Baraboo River.

The only other possibility is that he had an amnesiac episode right at the site of his riverside encampment, and wandered off.

But all the evidence points to a suicide, sadly.

Many of the episodes and faces of Disappeared stay with one.

In some instances, one pretty much knows what the fate was, and it's just a matter of locating the body.

In others, it's a complete mystery.

PREFACE AND UPDATE TO THE DISCUSSION OF THE MCSTAY CASE: I now thoroughly believe this is the solution to the McStay family disappearance and I'm happy to say I believe they are all alive, if not totally well: I believe this explains why this case seems to be so irrational, seems not to make any sense. And I apologize for having used the phrase "McShady family." I won't edit out that old theorizing based on the very limited information available then--for the sake of continuity in the comment chain, etc. I now believe this is a tragic love story, and not a "true crime" story at all.


The McStay Family is pretty much like the Marie Celeste.

It's a bit of a mindbender.

I won't rehash all the details of their disapperance here, but if you get a chance to catch this episode of Disappeared, do check it out and let me know what you think.

I'm trying to come up with a plausible theory but finding myself completely stymied.

I think the salient facts my mind keeps turning over are these:

1) Either the family left suddenly in a panic or they wanted people to believe they had.

2) It cannot be unimportant that the last cell call made (the night of the disappearance from the house and four days before the alleged crossing over into Mexico) before all cellular activity ceased was to Mr. McStay's business partner.

3) The fact that four days elapse before they cross over into Mexico by night has to be significant. It's unlikely that this time was passed completely in the family vehicle. Have police/FBI checked motels for aliases? Would they have signed in their true vehicle if under aliases (probably not). Or were they staying with one of the business partners?

4) The MOST signifcant fact is that the family computer held searches about passport requirements for children entering into Mexico. Only the father had a valid passport. Summer's had expired and the kids didn't bring their birth certificates (which would be needed to get passports to exit Mexico).

5). They left the vehicle to be impounded and they left over one hundred thousand dollars in their bank accounts. No ransom demands were ever received nor were attempts made to siphon these accounts (going by what was revealed).

6). I do believe the footage shown is the McStay family crossing over into Mexico. The hats on the children were the clincher for me, and the timing.

7). The families could be covering but they seem to be genuinely worried and uncertain as to the fate of their loved ones. In a life or death situation, however, one would expect family members to "cover" for them. The various witness protection programs seem not to be a possibility.

The following are speculation:

1). The McStays seem to have been planning on staying in Mexico for a long time or permanently, judging by their heedless behavior with regard to passports.

2). Either they left their house in a panic (the dogs were left to starve basically) or they wanted people to believe they left in a panic. This definitely indicates they either felt threatened by something which they could not bring to the attention of law enforcement, or they were engaging in deception with the house left in such a state or both.

3). Either they had a great reserve of hidden cash and resources or they planned on having the same once they were in Mexico. This had to be a LOT of money, to leave one hundred thousand dollars and a late model vehicle behind.

4). Unlikely but possible: The father is a sociopath and under some false pretense took his wife and family to Mexico and then killed either his wife or his entire family. I don't think that's the case. A sociopath will usually reveal his nature well before the fourth decade of life. I got the impression he genuinely loved his kids and probably his wife as well. And a trip to Mexico would not be required to perpetrate such a horrible crime.

5). A little less unlikely and only remotely possible: One of the business partners (probably the one who refuses to reveal his name publicly) lured McStay and his family into Mexico under false pretenses and had them murdered for mercenary reasons. I don't have enough information about the business or its worth or the character and histories of the other business partners.

6). Very possible. It's a fact that McStay did have business dealings in Mexico and had some familiarity with the country. Possibly someone offered him an opportunity promising great wealth and he jumped at it. Possibly he didn't want to deal with the conventional route of acquiring Mexican citizenship for himself and his family and instead decided to pursue this through the black market--which is open to anyone with money in Mexico, not difficult to access at all. It's hard to imagine why he would leave significant assets behind and why the family would leave their stateside relatives worrying. If this was a setup and not a legitimate business offer, to what gain for those who set the McStays up? I mean since no ransom demands were made and no money or assets were stolen (from what has been released). Possibly this business venture involved illegal activity and McStay had decided it was palatable enough to leap. The family did seem a bit unconventional in their attitudes toward life. They did seem to like to flout conventional norms. If one is offered an opportunity to make millions of dollars, the assets left behind in America begin to seem less important. And they knew someone would find the dogs and take care of them.

INTUITION: The McStays are all alive. Mexico might not have been their final destination but probably it was.

The fact that they made no panicked phone calls to family members during the four days of their flight before their departure into Mexico indicates to me that they were engaging in covert activities and left the country of their own volition.

The probability that they have engaged or are now engaging in illegal activities is VERY HIGH. I almost can't envision any scenario that doesn't involve illegal activities stateside (pre-flight) or in Mexico or both.

I feel they will be discovered eventually. My intuition is that whatever lifestyle they have adopted now has to involve a great deal of stress. And I feel eventually this stress will lead to alienation between spouses and that Summer will be the one to make first contact with someone in America. And the plot will unravel and unfold from there.


HOW TO FIND THEM:

Retrace all of McStay's business dealings (as well as those of his partners) with anyone in Mexico. Go back several years. It's unlikely that McStay would be suddenly set up with someone in Mexico with whom he had no prior dealings.

Find out which former business connections are known to be "dirty." Focus on them.

Monitor internet account activities of all family members and business partners. Duh lol.

There is an increased likelihood that the family relocated close to the ocean, that they live in a shore community. In San Clemente, they lived right on the beach and both Summer and her husband were apparently totally in love with the ocean. When they purchased the house in the mountains, there was a great deal of lamentation about losing the ocean.

They would obviously avoid the locations where millions of Americans come through (Acapulco, Cozumel, etc.) and select a remoter site.

I don't know what the popular Mexican television shows are, but of course if they have a popular Unsolved Mysteries type show that's televised nationally, you'd want to get the McStays featured on that.


QUESTIONS: What sort of life insurance policies did these people have and in what amounts?

Who are the beneficiaries?

Good luck having the insurance companies pay out on this one. Even after the seven year rule.

It ain't gonna happen.