Wednesday, December 28, 2011

McStays Update: Dan Kavanaugh and Summer McStay? Connection?

I found something troubling tonight.

Read this article, which shows you the San Diego detectives on this case are starting to lean towards the idea that the entire family might be victims of homicide.

That's from the IR3 (Search-and-rescue group looking for the McStays) site.

But focus on the name Dan Kavanaugh in that article.

Now read this description of a Dan Kavanaugh from San Diego.

Is that the same business associate?

If so, and if this source is accurate, the woman says he is a "psycho and stalker."

She paints him as a liar and says he's "like a sociopath."

If some of the last contacts the McStays were having were with this guy, I have to ask, "Was this individual scrutizined by law enforcement?"

If Summer's phone stayed on when Joseph's went silent and continued to receive those text messages, does this hint at possible collusion?

Should I flipflop back to the "Summer and another guy, Joseph dead" theory. Which is what I believed until that latest documentary gave me hope again they were all alive.

But this Kavanaugh guy.

How closely has he been looked at?

Could he have been the other individual accompanying Summer into Mexico? Is he alibied out for that time?

Or could he have hired someome to escort Summer to wherever she was going?

I always said the way her phone continued on past his going dead bothered me, that additional activity on hers.

Creepy.

And if you Google "Dan Kavanaugh" and "Summer McStay" in quotes like that you get a very tiny number of citations.

How have their names not been linked before? I mean if he was Joseph's "business associate" and designed websites for J.M.'s fountain business back in San Diego.

210 comments:

  1. You are right on track, I now believe. I have been thinking a great deal about this case.

    I think now, rather than they fled in some convoluted escape plan, that they instead had to meet someone quickly, and that someone brought them to a bad end near the Bonsall cell tower. The pings on the phones were within 1 1/2 miles from the tower.

    Somehow it was made apparent that both SM and JM had to be at this meeting, thus they brought the boys.

    They must've been freaked to go to this meeting because I'm thinking of two things: eggs left out and soiled diaper left out. A mom would've taken care of those things, even in a rush out the door. I know, I'm a mom, I know that moms can put away eggs, throw the diaper away, put hats on kids, grab a purse and get the family in a car in a matter of seconds. Unless...

    ...they were under immense duress as they left.

    Does anyone know if the car was speeding out of the driveway?

    Also, regarding the supposed border crossing video of the family leaving the US I think it's extremely odd that if they have one or two boys in diapers (or pullups) that they don't have a diaper bag with them. A mom would take a diaper bag.

    DK if he is the same person on the cheaters site, then he needs to be looked at carefully, as do all people who contacted them prior to their disappearance.

    Oh, and SM's cell phone lasted longer because they mentioned on the ID channels' show Disappeared that she had put a fresh battery in her phone that afternoon. I remembered that fact because I was curious as to how they knew that, and why she kept a second battery. I don't even know how to take my batter out of my phone, I just plug it in--even 2 yrs ago!

    I think I'm going to have to watch the two episodes again the ID and the E! one.

    There are so many possibilities, but that cell tower thing is the most glaring fact.

    I google mapped it, and it would take them about 15 minutes (give or take) to drive from their house on Avocado Vista Lane to near the Bonsall Tower.

    Thanks for your continued inquisition. You have great insight.

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    1. How come I can't find the link for the E Investigates/Ling ANYWHERE!! I have been looking forever; I saw it once and now I cannot find it again. Help!!

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  2. Thanks, Cat!

    But I didn't want to have this insight.

    Because I had reframed a theory where I had seen them as all alive.

    But now it's going over to the other side again with at least one person dead.

    Which is horrible.

    If that's the same guy in that "personal testimonial" and if it's true, then did J.M. have any idea with whom he was really dealing?

    Did J.M. make a "deal with the devil?" to make money?

    For like 8 months I believed Joseph was dead and the other three were alive.

    And then the new Ling documentary gave me hope (with the revelation of resources, Summer's irrationality) that this was about mental health and not criminality.

    But finding that about Dan Kavanaugh shoves it all back towards the possibility that this is a murder set-up.

    But I still believe that was Summer and the kids crossing over.

    I just tried to wrangle a theory to make that be Joseph with them.

    Because that's what I wanted to be true.

    But the truth doesn't care what we want.

    If the truth is this horrible thing then all my excuses for Summer's irrationality (borderline personality disorder) are just another universe that never happened.

    Then all the aliases, the changing of ethnicity, of age, the absence of dental records and refusal to enter any "systems" where her information is recorded (even public schools) is just shadiness...and not borderline personality disorder.

    And the shade would be to cover something criminal.

    A past.

    If she is dirty, then we'll eventually hear about her past.

    And I'm sure it won't be pretty.

    If. If. If.

    So many ifs.

    I still don't understand one thing.

    On the McStay family web site it was announced military drones (which can scan every square inch of soil) were going to be used to conduct a search in that area.

    Did this search get called off?

    Or found nothing?

    In that relatively recent article, the San Diego detectives are asking people about noticing anything that looked like burial plots, etc. in the area. And asking about the McStay family vehicle in that area in that time period, and so on. In other words, they created a good tip call in sheet. That was smart.

    So now I'm wondering if Joseph (or let's say this even though I don't believe it--all of them) were IN the ground and not on top of it would the drone be able to pick that up?

    I don't know if the drone uses FLIR (that technology that picks up variances in heat in a landscape--body heat--as visual information) as well.

    Not that it matters as at the time of the search there would be no more body heat (for a theoretical body there).

    Certainly no FLIR search was done in a realistic time frame in that area because that information only came out way down the line....and the McStays weren't even called in MISSING until 11 days after their disappearance.

    No accounts say anything about that vehicle speeding out of the driveway, and they certainly would have stressed that. All you can see is the bottom of the vehicle and not who's in it on that neighbor's cam.

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  3. And if you're right about the cell phone battery, how freakin suspicious is that?

    That would point more towards collusion than anything.

    I'm betting a certaom guy (who shall remain nameless but you know who I meam) has been (and probably still is) under police surveillance out there in San Diego.

    I also noticed a certain person's Twitter page recently got deleted.

    Hmmm.

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  4. Oh, one other idea.

    The McStays were on Craigslist a LOT in those days leading up to the disappearance.

    There was a pattern where they were buying things secondhand for the new home (the Rosetta stone Spanish c.d.s, for example).

    And there are warnings on Craigslist about the danger of "cross-border" deals. It's explicitly stated there in big bright letters, large eye-catching warnings.

    Not that I think that's what happened.

    But if Summer was going to set up Joseph with the man who shall remain nameless (but you know who I mean) this pattern of running out to meet someone from Craigslist would fit for a good strategy to get him out in the middle of nowhere and do the deed.

    Because he would already trust Summer's Craigslist "finds" by then.

    I wonder if the police who did the computer forensics on this case went through the Craigslist ads...especially the last ones...in the registry?

    That might have been the "fake" ad that led J.M. to his death, placed from (I'm guessing) San Diego, but showing up as a transaction offered in the Bonsall area.

    Hmmmm?

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  5. Oh, and I messed up that first link. I had linked to the M.F. website, which only partially excerpts the article and links to it.

    I have corrected that.

    Because that includes the smart tip sheet produced by the IR3 folks (not the S.D. detectives as I erroneously stated above) who appear to be doing a great job with their end of the investigation.

    Most troubling is this line:

    "Do you, or someone you know, have a great familiarity with the San Luis Rey River bed and the adjacent stream beds?"

    Because it's clear what they're thinking.

    They're thinking there's a body or bodies there. It says it's a densely overgrown river bed of the old San Luis Rey (I'm remembering the great novel by Thornton Wilder now! The Bridge Over...)

    I still am convinced that's Summer and the kids on that border crossing videotape.

    I want to believe that's Joseph but things are going back the way I believed for a long time. Before that Ling documentary gave me hope they were ALL alive.

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  6. This is the same Dan Kavanaugh that was a “business associate” of Joseph McStays, I located his facebook page and the pics match the pics posted on the cheaters website. He is also still “friends” with Joseph McStay on Facebook, kinda creepy. As someone once said, “there is never just one lie. If you find someone has lied once, look closer and you will always find more lies.” If he was lying and being sneaky in his personal relationships I’m sure it didn’t end there, he most likely lied and did other devious things in other aspects of his life. I got a very bad feeling when I saw him on the E Investigates program last week, I thought to myself, “no emotion at all, dead in the eyes, reminds me of a sociopath.” He’s not the brightest chap either, his facebook page is public and he is posting his new cell phone number on it for everyone to see.

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  7. Hey, thanks for this.

    If that is indeed he (and you seem to have proven it) then that's very worrisome.

    I know exes are not the most reliable people to give character references (especially close after breakup time) but that woman seems to have been seriously violated and the character issues she raises extend beyond the realm of romantic relationships.

    Constant lying is a hallmark of sociopaths.

    She also said he exhibiting "stalk(ing)" behavior. Very worrisome.

    I'm sure the police were all over this guy and it just wasn't released into the media. He had to be a serious suspect, if not The One.

    But I do believe Summer and the kids are alive and that's them on the crossing video.

    Summer probably needed help setting this up.

    The fact that the vehicle was abandoned within walking distance of the plaza, the timing of when the vehicle was abandoned at that shopping plaza and the timing of the crossing video match up too greatly in my mind.

    Of course, to look at the other side of things: if these are Mexican banditti coming over to commit crimes and then they have to leave the vehicle to get back to Mexico...

    But I don't buy that. SOMEONE in the McStay household was planning a trip into Mexico (one way, it appears) with the computer search.

    So that's too many coincidences for my mind.

    The man (I hate to come back to this theory) probably is not Joseph.

    Maybe they will find Joseph in the San Rey riverbed.

    But that body could have been taken anyway.

    Probably some body of water.

    Was he the one in the documentary who said "Oh sure...Joseph could have been carrying hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash?"

    Of course you'd want to say that if you want to make people think Joseph is just fine, you can all stop looking for him now. ;-)

    Yeah. Right.

    Did you see the comment another San Diego local (presumably a male) posted about wanting to kick his ass, wishing he had done it before.

    Apparently, she wasn't kidding about this guy having lots of enemies.

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  8. And, I too also thought that comment was weird, that JM would be carrying around $100,000's. That's throwing a smoke screen, IMHO.

    Plus, so many people are convinced they are okay, even the police have listed them as voluntarily missing. Everyone either to throw everybody off a scent or for their own hearts' sake because they're family, has been on that bandwagon.

    You have to wonder why the police didn't want to reveal that the pings came from the Bonsall tower. You just have to wonder...

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  9. ok here we go. Rumors are that Dan "the hacker" might have squeezed like $20k out of Joey shortly before he went missing. Also rumored that Summer mixed words with this guy. It all sounds pretty intense. Any how you are hitting on something Patrick McStay has been screamimng but no one seems to be listening. I personally don't think Dan is the issue. He came off pretty well on the E! special. As far as the girlfirend stuff, I am ashamed to admit that I wasn't always the nicest guy to woman especially in college and I for one am very glad social media wasnt around back then. I think Patrick is furious that SDPD hasn't fully investiagted people like Dan "the hacker". Mike McStay seems satisfied that people like Dan have been fully checked out. Not sure who is right or wrong here. Finally Patrick has indicated that other people in Joey's life have serious criminal histories. He is clearly not satisfied that those people have been fully checked out. As always I think you have great insight and appreciate your honesty. Cheers!

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  10. Also on the Craigslist question. From what I understand SDPD has reached out to the Craigslist Rosetta Stone seller but only by email. For some reason I think this is the only way they know how to reach the seller (I have no idea if this is true or not, maybe someone who knows computers or craigslist could answer)
    As far as I know no one responded to the multiple email requests for info from SDPD

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  11. Hi Chris, Cat.

    Cat, are you also "Chris?" There seemed to be a continuity in the comments, so I wondered if that was you but maybe not signed in to your Blogger or Google or whatever.

    Thanks for these comments.

    Very interesting about the 20K "borrowing" (you said "squeezed" which sounds even more suspect).

    And if there was bad blood between Summer and D.K.

    He seems like a scary person to mess with.

    Don't know if the Rosetta Stone purchase is significant or not. Allegedly, they were buying a lot of things secondhand through CL, not just that item.

    But if this last meeting was set up as a Craigslist sale it could be why the sudden running out.

    I'm beginning to think that's the way a set-up was arranged, but I think Summer might be complicit in that if so.

    Because someone was planning on taking off to Mexico.

    If we didn't have that computer search about passports and requirements for entry, I might lean towards the possibility of a massacre.

    But I still say some went into Mexico.

    Just not all maybe.

    I'm not sure about Joseph.

    The way his phone went off first really worries me.

    And how she kept receiving messages but was smart enough not to reply back.

    If Joseph is dead, there has to be another man (either romantic or someone who helped Summer pull this off).

    But I'm hoping he's not dead. And they just went about their flight really weirdly.

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  12. Hi, Cat is Cat and Chris is someone else, but really good info. I didn't know that about SM getting into it with that guy, and the 20K. Very suspcious.

    And, thanks for keeping reminding me about the Mexico search. That definitely puts someone at the home seeking out Mexican travel. And, SM's aversion to travel (stated to friends) to Mexico, that might be a smoke screen she put out. Hard to know.

    But, the Mexican travel inquiries on the web as well as the Rosetta Stone, well, that just makes me wonder if there aren't only 3 of them south of the border.

    Then, who was the man in the video if it isn't JM?

    We keep gleaning new info on this case and yet it keeps coming back to facts learned early on.

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  13. About what Chris said about the police checking out the Craigslist Rosetta Stone seller... The detective said they had emailed him and gotten no response and that's all he could do. He could not get a warrant to track the account and find the person, because there is no proof of a crime here. The McStays are listed as voluntarily missing, therefore it can be difficult for the detectives to get around legal hurdles to track people.

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  14. I'm not sure I think the Rosetta Stone seller has anything valuable to contribute and I don't see anything suspicious in that transaction. But they'd be fools not to follow up every personal contact the McStays had in those weeks before the disappearance. Because you never know when someone might have let something slip casually in conversation, and then that proves the key to the whole case.

    Then, Thanks Chris-who-isn't-Cat for that dynamite follow-up on that disturbing Cheaters post (and seeming verification of identity).

    You know, I said sociopaths lie all the time (which is totally true) but what did Summer do her entire life? I was just thinking that a little bit ago.

    I was thinking "She's trying to control her anger with that homeopathic remedy" before (the medicine she thought was called "Anger"). Sociopaths have no interest in controlling their anger, which they always think is righteous and justified. Just like the murders they commit--when they do, I mean.

    But maybe Summer WAS trying to buy that for Joseph. He was suffering panic attacks. Maybe the anger was his and came from a betrayal of hers?

    Either she was seriously mentally ill or she's into something criminal (I can't see any other construction to but on the freakin bizarre facts of her aliases, changing ethnicity, changing ages, avoiding all medical practitioners).

    And looking for a HOMEOPATHIC medicine is yet another way to avoid contact with a legitimate medical practitioner who's going to keep records.

    If Joseph had panic attacks (and if the anger was his) this would explain why Summer didn't want him going to any psychiatrist or psychologist. They would record the facts of his life. He might release information damaging to her "privacy."

    "You're fine, Baby, I'll fix you up with this homeopathic remedy."

    (Until I can get you offed????)

    This case is so weird.

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  15. It's funny that SM couldn't find "anger" and had to call the company that told her it doesn't exist.

    Here it is: http://www.liddell.net/p33/Anger/product_info.html

    Chris has excellent insight, as do you! Thank you for your help.

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  16. Me again. This is my theory and I'm sticking to it. Just check Joseph's hairbrush and do a heavy metals test on the hair strands (as I suggested to his brother Michael) and we will see why he was so ill with a mystery disease.

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  17. Hi Miss Elaine. Thanks for the reminder.

    Hi Cat. Yeah, I found that one a while back. When I first heard that on the new Ling documentary, oddly enough that's the single fact that struck me as the "oddest." Because she was searching for a seemingly non-existent product. Because she was going with homeopathic OTC (more hiding from medical professionals). And because she thought it had the name "ANGER," which just seems odd and counter-intuitive.

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  18. Hey - maybe Michael did have the hair analyzed and they found a boatload of arsenic in his hair and that's why they are now looking for gravesites. Perhaps the amount of poison was more than a human could tolerate and they know he is dead! Eh?

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  19. Hi Miss Elaine. I'm not quite sure why Michael would have been poisoned too (in your scenario) since he didn't live with the McStays and by all accounts they lived some distance apart and maintained communication by telephone several times a week. Plus, M.M. doesn't look ill at all. Sounds as though you might be joking though. ;-)

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  20. Sorry - I meant Michael (the brother) had Joseph's hair tested and it looked like he was dead, so now they are looking for one (1) gravesite which would be Joseph cause Summer and the kids and whoever are in the wind. Whew!! Make sense? I'm dying to win this contest!

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  21. Miss Elaine--

    I like the phrase "boatloads of arsenic."

    It would be a good title for a poetry book.

    If he's dead he's probably in some body of water.

    If he's not dead, he's probably ON some body of water, surfing.

    Or just floating on a raft in a swimming pool on a very private estate with high walls, looking up at the blue sky and thinking, "I love my job."

    While Summer makes margaritas.

    That's what I'd like to think, anyway.

    But...

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  22. Sorry - that title is taken for my new autobiography.

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  23. @MissElaine lol. then i'm worried 'bout what you've "been up to." ;-)

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  24. If I recall correctly, DK was the first to report the family missing - not to authorities, but to one of JM's family members. I seem to remember hearing that he contacted the father in TX, who then called the brother and asked him to go check on the family since he lives within driving distance. Would someone involved in the disappearance of a family alert others to their disappearance? Maybe if they wanted to make it look like they had nothing to do with it. Just a thought.

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    1. Very good!I do agree with you, he has the first person to report the family missing and is too many fingers pointing to DK and the last phone call was to a guy he met on a fast food restaurant, is that guy involved with DK?

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  25. I agree with you that if that's the case, it doesn't necessarily mean anything one way or the other. And I think you're right that he wasn't the first with authorities. It was M.M. who went into the house through that window and then realized something was drastically wrong. Thanks for your comment and the speculation.

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  26. I think some people wondered about the texts from DK to Summer's phone after reading that IR3 article that came out a while back. However, it is important to exercise caution when jumping to conclusions online that imply someone might have been involved in a crime when there is no hard evidence. That's when speculation can potentially become slanderous. Doesn't mean the authorities haven't thought the same or that they haven't been looking into a possible connection. Just a thought.

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  27. Hi. I didn't jump to any conclusions. If you notice my wording, I wrote "If..." I am engaging in speculation without imputing any certain motives or actions to the individual in question.

    I did the same thing with the characterization of "him" by his "ex." I wrote, "If true...if this is the same person..."

    It's not slander when you put it in writing. It's libel.

    But I have libelled no one.

    Thanks for your thoughts.

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  28. I wasn't necessarily referring to you specifically when mentioning slander. The use of the word "you" was intended as a generalization and I meant to convey that you aren't the only one to notice a possible connection between the two above named individuals, just that others might have been afraid to bring it up lest they be "accused" of falsely accusing someone of a crime. No offense meant toward you personally. I enjoy reading your McStay family entries.

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  29. It's cool. And yeah, I try to be mindful that these are just scenarios. It's terrible to speak ill of someone and find out later they're a great person. Because you can't take the words back. But. I won't go there. You probably know what I'm thinking. If that post about you know who is even HALF true...uh oh.

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  30. I read somewhere, can't recall just now where, that a person who was helping with the painting in the McStay residence has since disappeared...Could this be the mystery person, the person they say is not Joseph, at the border?

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  31. yea, what is the story of the "dissapeared painter"?

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  32. So, so far this Dan Kavanaugh was possibly described on a cheating website and linked to Joseph McStay the following ways? Business Associate and Facebook friend? Is that the same business associate Joey met with that day or another one?

    Was this also? Summer's friend who set them up for dating? The painter (who also goes by profile MacGyver or similar?) who was texting Summer beyond the time they disappeared to see if he was still needed to come back for painting as she said Saturday? Is he the same one who shot the YouTube video of the McStays at Christmas time in their new house?

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  33. OK so I don't want to confuse information and please excuse spelling errors in the names, so:

    McGyver is the painter (is that just a nickname)

    Dan Kavanaugh is the young business associate (who emailed Joey's father?) and eventually called police after no replies to his cell phone?

    Chase Merritt is the (business associate?) Joey last called from his cell phone that registered one minute (and was that a voicemail left or call unanswered?) and is this also the one Joey met with that day for lunch?

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  34. Why are the last updates to JM's facebook pics only 9 months ago? And today is Jan 12th, 2012? That would mean they were updated around April, 2011. Maybe someone in the family has his login?
    Odd also, he has 3 albums of family and friends and kids and not a single picture of his wife.

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  35. Hi Jgenie. I don't know the story behind the "updates." I doubt any missing McStays would do something that obvious if they're in hiding. Probably someone in the family as you suspect. The fact that there are not photos of his wife (I'm taking your word and didn't verify) is just another (almost funny at this point, it's so extreme) example of her hiding her existence from the world: no dental records, a handful of aliases, changing ethnicity, changing age. Home schooling, home birth.

    Either there's some major criminality there--or else it's a serious mental disorder like borderline personality disorder (see my post/theory on Summer McStay on this blog if interested. There are a great number of match ups with her odd behavior and this mental disorder.)

    Thanks for your comment and sharing that info.

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  36. hi, i just wrote a post and it disappeared, so i'll try again. i'm new to this site and learned a lot from the posters here. Is this site open to the public and ok to post here? i'm like a lot of people, this case just drives me crazy, i think about it all the time.i don't have a theory of what happened, i float between several.if i lived near folbrook, i would go out looking for them.. if a perp or perps abducted this family they would have to be ultimate professionals to create such a mystery.a paid hit? i like to think it was done out of kindness (like someone or someones kidnapped them to protect them from mortal danger and will release them in due time) i shut my eyes and pray this is true. i can't imagine JM and SM subjecting the kids to all this upheaval unless there was a mortal threat, but what could it be? Joeys business is still running and his younger brother mike is filling in for him. law enforcement must have checked this business out backwards and forwards and it came up clean or we would have heard. all of the business partners are still working and none have run for their lives.I go back to the beginning and ask who would have benefitted by their disappearance. it seemed they were ok in san clemente, did the move to the folbrook neighborhood have something to do with it? SM's alias are suspect. on another website not related to the mcstay case a poster said use of alias can be dangerous, if you introduce yourself to one person as "nick" and then you tell someone else your name is "Bob" in certain situations you could be taken for an undercover cop. if summer was using alias in the new neighborhood and some of these were drug dealers could they have perceived them as being narcs? also joey went around a lot with video camera, just a thought. JM and SM were very smart, each had a real estate license and found this house in folbrook themselves it was in forclosure when they bought it I thought maybe the parties that lost the house blamed them or something, i don't know how that goes. I think it might be possible joey was ambushed on the way home from the business meeting on thurs. feb 4,and someone called summer to come and get joe because he was too dizzy or sick to drive hence the rush out of the house. i wonder if she had 2 prs of glasses, because her rx sunglasses were left on the counter her mother said she couldn't see without her glasses. i haven't heard anymore about the drone search of the bonsall area i think i will go to the equisearch website and see if i can ask a question. i just hope they will be found safe but if they are dead i hope their remains are found and it could be they are all in that dried up river bed. i don't know what his daily work routine was but find it odd none of them were concerned when he didn't show up for work by monday i would think the alarm would sound sooner. thanks for letting me vent.

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  37. Hi. I'm sorry your first comment vanished. None of my doing. Sometimes Blogger eats things on its own. I have typed long paragraphs before only to have them go into the twilight zone. Yeah, feel free to post. Thanks for your thoughts. There are a lot of theories banged around here in a number of posts I have made (many alternate theories by commenters such as yourself). So enjoy. I think the town is spelled Fallbrook. Not to be nitpicking. Good luck solving the mystery. And you're not alone. It seems to drive everybody (myself included) crazy.

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  38. hello all, about the drone search of the bonsall area, all i found out was it was scheduled for feb 26th, 2010. doesn't say any place if it actually happened or not, no mention of it on any news outlets. something that rattled my cage today, is there any way to determine if it was joey or summer who ordered the rosetta spanish tapes? i'm assuming summer but i could be wrong. does it seem odd to anybody the tapes were delivered to joey at a soccer game on jan 29...6 days later the family disappears. a delivery to joey personally at a soccer game?? and not to the address of the home or to the business address but delivred by 2 men that shook hands with joey?? sounds strange to me. about my previous post of joey not showing up for work on the following monday, i just read where he worked from home, so that explains part of why he wasn't missed before. i wonder what his daily routine was like.

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  39. I didn't see any follow up on that either. Maybe they figured out the expense or that if they did that for one family they would need to start doing it for everyone else? Don't know. Obviously if they did do it nothing was found or we would have heard, right? I read that Summer wanted the Rosetta Spanish cds. It doesn't seem odd to me about the soccer game because Joseph was watching his son play in that game. Two guys could have been a couple or a friend who tagged along with the guy selling the cds. Craig's List purchases are up to you to figure out...how to meet, etc. So that makes as much sense as any other way. It's not like EBAY where the person is necessarily willing to ship it to you. I think a lot of people wonder what J.M.'s "daily routine" was like. Thanks for your thoughts on this and the comment.

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  40. hello, i did some more checking and yes it was summer who ordered the tapes on craigslist and asked that they be delivered to joey at the soccer game on jan 29th. i have no experience with craigslist ,so to me this was really strange.still odd tho when you think about it why deliver it to joey so he could bring it home? why not have them bring it to the house in the 1st place. 2 days before that is when someone inquired about passport requirements (jan 27) i didn't realize how close these dates were to the date of their disappearance, eery. a few years ago, pamela vitali was beaten to death in her home over some young guy stealing credit card info and ordering drug paraphenalia with it and i guess his stuff was sent to her and her husband(dan horowitz) house by mistake. i hope and i'm sure the police did check all the boxes in the garage, the addresses on the boxes and contents, just in case it would turn up some clues.mike mcstay said she shopped a lot online and fed ex was always delivering something. the house is going in foreclosure soon and i sure hope they have everything photographed and checked out. i wish i couold find out who the previous owners were.they seemed like such a nice family 2 darling little kids and had such a promising future. i checked out the earth products website and the fountains are just beautiful.so sad. they said joey bought beach bags that afternoon, were they left behind? i guess we really don't know if they left with luggage or not. i suppose if they went on their own, they could have packed up some bags. i understand their vehicle parked at the border came back with his fingerprints meaning that joey had driven it. mind boggling. maybe they did cross the border with bags etc, and the family on tape wasn't them. tomorrow is another day. good night

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    Replies
    1. Just to keep things straight: Per the Daniel Horowitz/Pamela Vitale case. There was no robbery (Horowitz told police nothing was taken and the crime scene did not look like a robbery either), no one charged anything to Pamela Vitale's credit card nor had anything sent to /mailed to her house. In fact, it appears that on appeal of this case, the young guys lawyers are claiming there is a lot of evidence against Daniel Horowitz, the husband. Most people are hurt or murdered by someone they know. Pamela Vitale was a rage kill - personal.

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  41. it makes perfect sense to me that joey received the cds at a soccer game versus at the home. being a woman myself, i would much rather have my husband meet someone to pick something up from craigslist, then give an unknown person my home address and have them deliver it to my house while my husband was out. i think that is pretty normal. i am completely boggled by this mystery. if joeys fingerprints were on the steering wheel, that gives me hope - where did you hear that info? if that is true, then i assume they want to be gone and that some of the family members DO know where they are OR that they are safe and needed to be gone for some reason. with her family being silent and summer not being so hot about his family, she probably told someone in her family about the plan or that one day soon they would "be gone and not to worry..." who knows. i do hope that someone sites them so all of us can stop wondering how a family can just up and disappear. i have read every post on this blog and am intrigued! i look in from time to time to see if there has been a sighting... lets hope they show up - like olivia newton johns ex - even if we don't get the answers.

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  42. Thanks for your comment. You're right. I agree with you. Because we are warned about meeting people like that. They could be using those ads to get a look-see in side someone's else, check for security systems, etc. I don't remember saying J.M.'s fingerprints were on the wheel. Maybe a commenter did and I've forgotten? I did hear when they dusted the vehicle it was only the family's prints in it. But not a breakdown as to who was driving. Maybe you read that on another blog even--since you mention you've ready so many posts? Yeah, I hope they're found too. I really believe at least three of them are alive. I think I believe about ninety percent J.M. is alive and with them too. Only about a ten percent nagging doubt that he might have been killed that first night the family disappeared. But mostly I believe they're all alive and together.

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  43. hi, to get back to you about the prints on the wheel, it seems to me it was a mike mcstay video but now i can't be sure.I might have been assuming or drawing a conclusion and established it as fact in my head. I tried to find something but there is nothing specific to the steering wheel. i found this article on the web from the LA times dated may 30,2010 called Where did the mcstays go? "the suv yielded few clues. It was found locked, and fingerprints found on it matched the mcstays. two child restraint seats were in the back and some new toys, most in their packaging were in the rear storage area. Family members said one of the boys had a birthday a week before the disappearance." i would feel better if they had said there were no other prints that didn't match the mcstay's in the vehicle, or addressed the steering wheel itself.

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  44. hi again, just wanted to let everyone know the mcstay family website jan 16,2012 has announced no new leads in the case 2 yrs. later. they will be doing a few san diego and la times stations this week in preparation of upcoming 2 yr anniversary of the family's disappearance. also under the"E investigates with Laura Ling" column on the right, there are new posts from dec. 16- jan 16 quite interesting.

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  45. hello folks, i've read just about everything i could on the various websites. such a mystery. i watched the youtube videos of joey and family on the road to the house and of the kids and summer playing with the dog. I could hear in joeys voice he had allergies. his mother susan blake said he was very healthy until august is when he started getting sick. interestingly august is when they stopped paying their rent in san clemente. i thought of the renovation of the house, with sawing and painting, that can really kick up the allergies.on feb 4, joe left around noon to go to the meeting with merritt 70 miles away about an hour and a half drive. i understand they met for lunch at a chik-fil-a he probably would have gotten there at 1:30. i can't find out anything about how long the meeting lasted or if anyone else even saw him there. at this point i don't trust any info. so if the meeting lasted 2 hrs say and he went home this would bring him home about 5pm however there were text messages between his and summers cell phones at 5pm and 5:47 pm. so he still wasn't home at 5:47 it isn't known if he made any stops on the way home. so if he even got home a few minutes after the 5:47p call, he would have been home then only 2 hrs and would have left again.as seen on the neighbora surveillance tape. sounds very unusual.especially when he wasn't feeling well.i'm sure the kids must have eaten supper before joey came home and the dishes were done and the kids were having a before bed snack, the popcorn. the eggs and other things were out probably because summer was going to make herself and joey something to eat. now i lose it, can't figure how or why they left, only speculation on my part regarding the whole thing. joey could have been followed home and intruders forced them out so many questions, so few answers. i'll try to find out what time summer talked to realator friend diane that day, i knew but forgot.

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  46. I don't think the popcorn is that big of a deal. It's a pretty dry snack that can stay out for days, maybe it was, and it was mentioned by (JM's mother?) that there was some snacks or drinks upstairs that should have been dumped too. Maybe around their playhouses or since they seemed to all be sleeping in the master temporarily.

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  47. yeah, i guess your right.no way of telling about the popcorn.on another angle, i wonder if there was always a cloud hanging over joeys head from years ago. like maybe he was a witness to something bad happening on the beach when surfing and luckily at the time, they didn't have the opportunity to take care of him could have been the cause of his anxiety. maybe every once in a while he would see one of these characters and it would really freak him out.maybe he started seeing them more and more often. could he after a while decided to confront the person or persons to smooth it over.these people pretended to let by gones be bygones but in reality decided to clean up any loose ends, just to be sure and got rid of the whole family. anything is possible. the realator friend john is quoted as saying "they are nice, caring, outgoing people and they ran into somebody bad." "they are too trusting." on websleuths a poster had a friend who had a boutique selling swimsuits, she went with a friend to mexico to find a cheaper place to have them made, said money launderers just moved in on her just like that, offered her a big bundle, just expected her to go along, she ended up selling her business and fleeing to vancouver. this might have happened to the mcstays. i would really like to know what joey did and where he went in the afternoon of feb 4.

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  48. Thanks for your comment.

    I don't know. I wish I had a crystal ball.

    I just think they're either all alive or three of them are (minus Joey).

    Mental illness? Criminal activities as yet undetected?

    I don't know.

    I would think if they were engaged in criminal activities by now something would have surfaced and L.E. would have changed their status to WANTED.

    So maybe it really is mental illness.

    People often flee and hide irrationally when afflicted with things like B.P.D.

    But who knows.

    Maybe it's a scenario none of us has even been able to imagine.

    Life really is stranger than fiction sometimes.

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  49. I really wish people would remember at this point there are 4 missing people 4 victims. In this GREAT country of ours people are innocent until proven guilty. Can we all lay off Summer for a while. Her sister posted on the FB page SERACH4MCSTAYS please take a moment and read it. Her name is Tracy.

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  50. Hi. Thanks for your comment. We don't know if we have "4 victims" since they might be perfectly fine and have disappeared of their own choosing.

    So you're making assumptions yourself.

    Is that a typo or is it really SERACH and not SEARCH in that name?

    People are going to speculate since this is a national news story that has now gone international.

    I don't really understand why you think typing those words would make an entire nation stop speculating?

    I never posted any of my thoughts or speculations on the family's website because I consider that private turf and a site dedicated to finding the Mcstays and not analyzing them.

    But you should read some of the stuff people post there.

    This is a privately written blog that is public.

    So people can feel free to speculate as they want.

    I don't think people WANT to worry about Summer McStay's character. I think they wish everyone was fine.

    But there are troubling facts in this story.

    And people naturally speculate.

    I'm sure the vast majority of them will be happy to be proven wrong if they speculated with dark thoughts.

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  51. i just started thinking along the lines of a personality disorder not bashing anyone but could summer have had multiple personalities along with multiple names? that might account for the suspicious searches on the internet for rosetta stone tapes and anger medicine. i've heard his mother, brother and friend say how sick joey was...a friend said his health was deteriorating everyday i've heard friends of summers say she was upbeat and happy and a great mom and had plans but no mention she was worried or concerned about joey. maybe he didn't tell her anything about his health as to not to worry her? the izuzu left at the border, his mother said it was joeys medicine, left in the suv. usually a concerned spouse looks after the other, reminds, picks it up etc. hard to believe they drove the suv there, on websleuth someone mentioned maybe it was towed there. joeys mother said the fingerprints matched summer and joeys in the suv. such a mystery. i am considering that maybe there was something wrong with summer mentally and you can't help speculate.

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  52. boy it's getting late and this is really spooky, does anyone know if summer had a gun or bought one on craigslist? could she have forced joey out of the house using one or both kids as hostage? forcing him to drive. about her cellphone dying after his, were the texts incoming or outgoing?

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  53. Hi Commenters.

    In answer to your question: texts were incoming.

    Commenter above. I don't think considering mental illness means you're "bashing" here. These things happen. And it could explain all those aliases in a way that doesn't mean criminality.

    Multiple personality disorder is exceedingly rare (many question whether it really exists or is a misdiagnosis of other disorders).

    I think people would definitely have known if she suffered from that. Doubtless somebody would have been freaked out when they encountered one of her alters.

    MPD is much more likely to be encountered in a tv movie or an HBO series than IRL.

    People with borderline personality disorder have been known to fool practically everyone--often even the very doctors who are treating them.

    It's a very interesting disorder if you ever feel the inclination to read about it online.

    You might be surprised how many of the traits match up with some of S.M.'s more mystifying behavior.

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  54. Maybe JM made previous runs to San Ysidro for something, and that is why his youngest son seems to say something that sounds like "Papa, papa, this is the house in Sidro" because he is repeating a word that he heard his father JM and mother SM talking about before like maybe one of the things they took into consideration when moving was for him to be able to continue making trips to San Ysidro from their new house just as easy as it was from their previous rental in San Clemente on the 5 freeway, the equivilent distance as it would be from their new house in Fallbrook off the 15 freeway.

    Only for some reason his contact(s) asked him to cross over the border this time instead of meeting on the California side in San Ysidro, and maybe this is the reason for the internet search pertaining to travel to Mexico from the Mcstay computer not too long before February 4th. Maybe he had a prepaid international phone.

    Could it be they got rid of their cell phones in the area where unanswered texts pinged off a cell tower within a mile and a half distance or so of a bridge off a highway about 7 miles from their house? But why, did they not want any of their contacts to be able to reach them?

    Why the 4 days from the time neighbor's video captured a portion of their vehicle leaving their driveway at home until the day their car was towed from a San Ysidro shopping center near the border, and video footage of the border that might be them? Did they not want to be at home during that time for some reason? Were they told of a delay and had to hang back for a while. Did they have another place to stay?

    Why did they carry on as if planning for the future up until and even that day February 4th? Was there a chance they might not need to go and in the event they didn't have to weren't planning to, or did something unexpected come up?

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  55. anonymous poster at 4:59am this is really something to think about, the sons referrance to a house in san sidro. he knew it well enough to remember it. i missed that. maybe the family did have a house at the border or over the border, are there even houses near the border? i've never been there.a poster on websleuth said there is a great big suv/camper in the yard of c. merritt, could they have been hiding there for the 4 days. how far is that from san ysrido? so they might have gotten an all clear signal on monday and then left for mexico. makes me wonder, the business really expanded, if mexican money launderers moved in on them like they did to a posters friend on websleuth. but if mexican money launderes were the problem, i would doubt then they would flee to mexico. i watched the special on the case with laura ling again last night. mcgyver left the home at 1pm said the kids had followed him around with paint brushes. another man, i didn't get his name but a friend of summers said she called him that day freaked out about the painting (he kind of laughed) and said he really had to calm her down again she's freaked out over painting but no mention of joes health.i would think she's be more freaked out over the laundry pileup and housekeeping. i wonder if she was always like that. one reason hired housekeepers are in demand, could have been easily fixed. the male friend who calmed her down doen't think they are alive.a female friend said she talked to summer the night before on the phone and someone had knocked on the door and summer was startled that someone would be knocking on the door at that time, said she called for joe to get the door, then didn't say any more about it. i wonder wonder wonder. if there was rivalry/competition involved and i don't mean by any relatives of the couple. i guess we'll see if a similar business starts up. could it be someone wanted to prevent summer and joe from starting up a realty business in their home? their house was sold last month dec. 28 for $345,000. i hope that person doen't read this board, but myself i would be afraid to live there. the house was built in 2001 or 2002 how many owners has it had? if people don't keep it long why not? the quest goes on

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  56. i just found this on websleuth the whole page is very interesting especially the 12th entry down about a pyramid scam in 2001 go to ca ca-mcstay family-media links-page 2-websleuths. i wonder if all these people and associates have been checked out.

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  57. Thanks for your comments. I will go there and check it out if I can find it. Feel free anytime to post a link here if you want to share something (I mean if you're not a spammer trying to sell something). Websleuths has a lot of great speculation on this case, although I have only read some of it.

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  58. And I agree with that statement: "but if mexican money launderes were the problem, i would doubt then they would flee to mexico" Who took those videos...Macgyver? there's a macgyver tv on YouTube that has a christmas eve or christmas video of the family (very short).His YouTube channel doesn't come across at all as exploitive and his other postings are music that make you think he's a typical Southern Californian dude. I don't think C. Merritt has ever appeared in any interviews or anything, has he? I think the police said they cleared him. I know he has the criminal history and was working as a welder for J.M.'s fountain business. A lot of people focussed on him from the start but I've never seen any evidence that made me think particularly strongly in his direction. I always keep in mind that anyone could have alibied out with the police, but still be responsible if they hired someone.

    But I still feel the cause of this disappearance originiated in the four missing McStays.

    And I think either they're all alive or three of them are minus Joey.

    What that guy thinks doesn't mean any less than what you or I think.

    Actually, I'd say it means less because I do believe I have evidence why I believe they're alive (videotape, pre-planning on the computer and with the language tapes, etc.)

    The only reason someone would have for believing they are dead is a feeling or intutition.

    Just because they're not contacting people is not a good enough reason.

    Don't you think it's strange that the Department of Justice never changed their statuses from "Voluntary Missing" after all this time.

    I would not be one bit surprised if our government knows they're alive and is not sharing this information because it would be a violation of their rights as U.S. citizens to do so.

    Adults have the right to "go missing."

    If they're not criminals and being sought for extradition, they can drag this out as long as they want.

    I've even heard wild speculation this might all be a calculated hoax to generate money.

    Because when Michael McStay stops answering comments or making posts on the message board except to say he will entertain any "serious offer" to produce shows on his brother's family, you can smell money being raked in by the boatload.

    And they get all those donations.

    And the reward is set at a measly 1,000 for a family of four.

    Doesn't that strike you as odd? It doesn't just strike me as odd. It strikes me as great insulting.

    Because clearly great deals of money are being made.

    Everyone knows a large reward is a greater incentive.

    That could imply he knows his brother and family are alive. And why pay out 100K if you know they could easily slip up and be found.

    Because you would have to give that money up.

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  59. about the post today at 10:34am regarding the links to a pyramid game going on in 2001, the 12th entry down, the first link is broke but the 2nd one works. don't worry no spam! just wanted to add, i wonder if all of these people mentioned here besides joey mcstay have had anything happen to them such as threats, are they all alive and well

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  60. Hi. I went there and the site must have been malfunctioning or something. Because I couldn't get the pages to change. I tried clicking on the number (didn't work) then tried "Next" (didn't work) and finally entered the number in the miniature box (nothing). My computer was timing out so I left.

    But thanks to you I did find something I'll add to my post about D.K. that I found disturbing even if it is unsourced, unverified.

    Well, it sounds as though the source is Patrick M.

    P.M. has allegedly been pointing police in the direction of D.K. for some time. And my other post I did on D.K. indicates why I get a really creepy feeling when I think about him and the possibilities there.

    And yeah, whoever said they thought his comments in that documentary came across as "total spin" (not their words, but the gist) I totally agree now.

    At first, I took it those words at face value. Then after I researched him, I now feel his probable lying there implies something very dark.

    If you care to know what I'm talking about go to my post on him on this blog. Other people have also added troubling details.

    I think that's the guy to be looking at. Seriously.

    Anyway, here's what I found on Websleuths (which I commend as an admirably run and impeccably ethical site).

    "Probably because the company was SOLD by DK (unauthorized and possibly illegally as I understand) to someone he (DK) owed a great deal of money to. Wonder why that wasn't discussed in the E piece? One of the many reasons for Mr. PM's frustration with the media and LE.

    MOO of course...based on information I have gathered from PM"

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  61. And yes I realize P.M. is either in police custody (if he hasn't posted bail) and was himself extradited as a felon recently from Texas to Louisiana.

    But his problems might turn out to be exclusively his own and they seem to be fiscal improprieties.

    Certainly this makes one wonder about his character.

    But it could be all the adults in this story engaged in illegal or marginally legal enterprises.

    But murder's a different story. It takes a real sociopath to do that.

    And, if you see my other post, we just might have a psychopath in the center of this story.

    It's scary stuff.

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  62. i really like the mcstays but i think they operate a little in the gray area as far as honesty goes. mike and joey along with their dad have operated 3 businesses together and every business has been sued and in every case the elder mcstay went missing. so is this a case of like father/ like son? the pyramid scam joey was involved with in 2001, he lived at the beach address(i'm assuming it's the same address he and summer shared. he divorced around that time 2000-2001 and didn't meet summer until around 2004. he started EIP i believe in 1996. and he had owned a store naturally dana point closing in 2001-2002. he sold some of his fountains to the dana point store at one time. someone on websleuth found he also had a video business , photographing weddings. the poster said there was a picture he took of a wedding couple at cabo mexico. and there was a picture of him and summer and 1 son. he really has a lot of business sense. i don't mean to say i think they are outright dishonest but they do things here and there to benefit themselves which aren't really crimes and wouldn;t hurt someone, however i always think if you do even some litle bit of dishonesty you open that window and leave yourself open to danger.i think they might have been fleeing a hit from right here in the usa. people can be very vindictive. i don't think law enforcement tells everything either. they didn't release the info about the cell phone pings for 18 mo. they keep a lot of things to themselves. i hope they are alive, maybe mike gets the money to joe and summer somehow. in any case they lost their home, 2 vehicles, bank acct, identity as they knew it but i hope not their lives. i don't think kavanaugh or mcgyver have any involvement jmho. have a good night

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  63. From what I just read on Websleuths your particulars about the evolving nature of their business(es) are characterized well by you here. And I feel intuitively you're right. That they didn't want to push the boundaries but that they felt "forced to" by financial circumstances. And there's no denying P.M.'s business dealings have earned him that recent extradition. And they were all definitely linked, you're right. I tend to think they're all alive and yes they did work out the money transfer type stuff before vanishing. If they had been abducted they wouldn't have been communicating with the business partner the last thing. I only ever gave the abduction/murder scenario a ten percent chance or so of having occurred (and even then I was sure it would have only been J.M. killed). Maybe you're right about D.K. but his actions worry me. But then if you're right about collusion, when people say "What right would he have to sell the business and semingly profit after they disappeared?" Well he could have been selling off the remaining assets to give the McStays liquidity...Fed-exed (or other courier service) that money (wouldn't bank wire be more likely to be flagged?) and taken his cut and moved on. So what you says makes eminent sense to me. But then why would Patrick McStay be pointing the finger at D.K. so much? Since it would risk bringing down a house of cards. That still remains mysterious to me. Unless the McStays no longer trusted P.M. and decided to get the hell away from him and his bad dealings with just this maneuver. Maybe they weren't comfortable operating "dirty" as he was, and decided this is the best way to get the old man out of their lives. It would not surprise me one bit. And you're right. I know L.E. isn't telling us everything. Why would they? You might even be right about fleeing the hit. People can want to kill you over even small business deals that went sour. Happens every day. I never though McGyver was a bad guy but D.K. clearly has "issues." Whether those issues extend to murder is, of course, anyone's guess. But along these lines of speculation what the police should be looking for is checking courier services in say the three months after the McStay disappearance date in Feb. 2010 and check for D.K or even McGyver or P.M.'s name appearing on any items shipped through DHL, Fed-Ex, Western Union wire transfer, etc. Banks might be too obvious. But more likely whoever was deputized to do this with the funds post-sale of the biz by the McStays probably passed this assignment on to a third or even a fourth party. I mean that would be the smart thing to do. Of course, if any of these people had aliases you'd want to check the courier services for those names as well. There had to be asset transfer (either in the 4 days before crossover or after the business was sold--people speculate "without the right to do so--or P.M. speculates this). But if he's "not in the loop" the police should check to see if J.M. did any sort of legally notarized ppwk that transfered such rights to conduct business in his absence to D.K. Mcgyver or anyone else. That would be a dead giveaway they intended to leave the country.

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  64. i just reread pat mcstays website, the mcstay foundation.com and he sure is bothered by someone close to the family who was threatening joe, was it kavanaugh or someone else? and how did this person get in joey and summers life, and what would be the cause of threats?? at first mr mcstay doesn't even mention the persons gender and then only once, in the following paragraph he says "don't the threats from a convicted felon themselves give LE the right to bring this man in for questioning?" he also feels the video of the mexican border should have been checked from thurs. night thru monday that does make sense. someone on websleuth contacted someone who knows about video at the border claiming there are frontal, rear and lateral views of people going thru, so what gives here. under The Public Plea For Help, dated 8/12/11 Pat Mcstay said there was $23,000 transferred out of joeys business acct after the date he was last seen and before he was reported or known to be missing. along with an unidentified person who attempted to download joes accounting books after his disappearance and before he was known to be or reported missing.goes on to say there are people in joey and summers lives with criminal records who have motivation to harm them. one particular person close to the family was said to have threatened joey and told him to muzzle summer or they ( not he as in one person but they) would do it for him. sounds serious to me and could be evidence of foul play. why does pat mcstay have his own website separate from mike mcstay? pat mcstays site does not accept donations so that can't be a reason. so if the mcstays left voluntarily, they sure had good reason to, or we are led to believe this. pat mcstay also felt joes health symptoms were asthma aggravated by threats. i thought of their real estate connections today, it has been said summer was concerned about safety, protective of the kids etc. yet by turning her home into a satellite real estate business, would this mean she would have potential clients coming to her home like in a downtown office and would she really want strangers coming by especially if she had had threats. and also weren't they afraid of being on youtube? unless the person threatening them called a truce and then hired a hitman? could that have been the purpose of the business meeting, to settle a dispute of some kind, and joey decided it was getting too dangerous. everything seems to raise more questions

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  65. it surprises me but at the same time it's encouraging that earthinspiredproducts is still up and running. they are still on the web check this link earthinspiredproducts business review corona ca seems they had a better business bureau accreditation but it was revoked in may of 2011, 2 of 4 customer complaints were not addressed by the company. sounds like minor problems to me. the mgr of the company is listed as dan kavanaugh, owner is joey mcstay and coowner is pat mcstay. now i wonder if summer had become aware of some bad people or business thru the real estate company she worked for. why would someone threaten joey to muzzle summer, about what? she was a stay at home mom, the only place she worked was for the real estate company. what do you think?

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  66. Thanks for your comments. I'll let other people respond to these speculations.

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  67. I read about the muzzle Summer comments in a few places a while back and it seemed to be about JM's ex-wifes new husband/boyfriend. PM seemed concerned because the guy reportedly has a criminal record involving violence. If that is who told JM to muzzle Summer it probably had to do with JM's oldest son; as in Summer may have made comments about how JM's oldest son was being raised or that he should live with her and JM. I'm just specating on why this individual would say to muzzle Summer, but I did read enough to piece together that this was who said it and not a business associate (based on reading PM's comments on Facebook and some inside info on Websleuths).

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  68. Thanks for that clarification. People talk like this all the time, so I don't put a lot of weight on such things as "death threats." I mean that used to be a sitcom line cliche. Remember Archie Bunker? It's usually said facetiously (if often used in a sexist manner).

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  69. Hi 9:10 AM, I don’t know what baby did say on jbmcstay’s YouTube video avo1, but it did sound like word Sidro. That’s why I wondered IF he did say he must have overheard them say it, and being a baby not knowing where San Ysidro was or never having been there (so no not like they had a house there) but mistook Sidro thinking it must have some connection with them looking at new houses. Or it could be (and who is to say with baby talk) but maybe he overheard them say something in relation to that word such as they could park in San Ysidro like where their car was towed from (but you’re right it must have been repeated enough times for a baby to remember the word).

    I did wonder about them leaving at night on Feb 4th which seems an odd time to cross the border, and then the border video footage 4 days later is at night. If it was indeed them in the border video what could explain cell phones and 4 days?

    I kind of wonder why mcgyver introduced JM and SM. Isn’t that what it said on the E! show? Unless the show edited it confusing, but it seemed like they mentioned a friend introduced them and then showed a picture of mcgyver with them like maybe it was him who introduced them.

    I caught that too on E! show that SM’s other friend (Stein?) mentioned he kind of had to calm her down about the painting not being finished. And that would have only been the day before they went missing. So that seems like another thing that would indicate planning for the future. And her friend (Stein’s) account seems to fit with SM’s text to the painter mcgyver after he left her house at 1 PM or so, texting like we do appreciate you, yes see you Saturday. Like maybe she wanted it done immediately and painter couldn’t.

    Maybe laundry pileup and housekeeping could be that SM wanted remodeling done a.s.a.p. so left everything a mess to get JM to hurry and finish all he said he was going to do. Like you know a husband or a friend isn’t going to have as much drive as you to get it done as a hired contractor, and the longer the painter took putting her few days behind, the longer was probably going to take JM to finish floors, put on cabinet doors, whatever, and finish already. What were they going on 4 months living there? She was probably sick of living that way. Probably didn’t want to nest in an unfinished house, probably why their things were still in pods. That could have even been her attitude about eggs on the counter. Maybe not but who knows, maybe she really just was preoccupied. Being the only female in the house that was a lot of males to clean up after and herself plus two dogs. A dirty diaper though I don’t know unless she ran to clean the baby and thought she'd come back to toss it then really forgot.

    That house probably had a history of several buyers because of the way the market has been in recent years then over time some of those buyers possibly couldn’t afford it, had to move, foreclosed on, etc.

    Yeah, I don’t know I guess knock at the door when SM on phone with friend could have been anything. Though it was already dark even door to door sales, or a worker who forgot something, or yeah somebody from their past who tracked them, or somebody scoping them out. Guess it couldn’t have been a neighbor since police probably spoke with each one.

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  70. hello this sunday afternoon, i see how easy is to draw a wrong conclusion out of a few statements. one thing we can all agree to is this is an unexplained disappearance of an entire family. they must have to be living with false id's, birth records, social security #'s.not to mention they may be in disguise. summer might be a tall thin woman with blue contact lenses and short red hair, joey may be bald, thinner with lifts in his shoes. kids could be altered but they often change dramatically in 1 yr.parents one or both could have had plastic surgery. it is like looking for a needle in a haystack. but what about social interactions can kids be trusted to go under an assumed name? and the question is why? i've even thought along the lines of the paranormal, alien abduction, the occult, the smoke monster from the tv hit Lost, just ridiculous theories, wpp, mental illness,the desire to go invisible. nothing makes any sense. lastly what might have happened is they were taken by a psycho. it really is frightening how many people do go missing in this country and are unsolved mysteries. people are just left to wonder.

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  71. hello again, in response to anonymous jan. 22 at 2:10am, i think your analysis of summers housekeeping is right on and it really wasn't that messy. i thought at one time with the beds being stripped and all the clothes on the floor in the closet, that maybe someone had been rifling thru their things looking for something. but tim miller of equisearch said they didn't have coat hangers. a friend in another video said they weren't settled, just took what they needed out of boxes. the skiptracer on the Ling documentary said it could indicate grabbing things and leaving in a hurry. one thing that bothered me was when tim miller was asking questions to mike mcstay and summers brother, they both mumbled and started talking at once so it was impossible to get a clear answer, then mr miller just dropped it. as they were going down the stairs, mr miller noticed something and said "ok, it's not my job" i thought that was odd. about who introduced summer and joey, i think i read on websleuth they met at vernazza realty, and both diane calignari and mcgyver claim to be the one who introduced them and maybe they both did not aware the other had. i don't know if mcgyver worked at vernazza realty or not. something about the dogs again, i do think (today anyway) if they were planning on going out and coming right back, like maybe she had taken the eggs out and they said oh lets just go get something to eat at a drive in or something, it's getting late an i'm tired, i think they would not have left the dogs outside because barking could disturb neighbors, it was almost 8pm and dark, and i think they protected the dogs like kids, would be concerned they would be stolen. same as the 5 play houses in the house, i think summer was so busy indoors she didn't have a lot of time to watch the kids outside, so she let them play inside. if play houses were outside, kids would want to be out there and she didn't have time to watch them at the time. does it seem odd that there was no mention of what any of them were last seen wearing? i suppose it doesn't make any difference. just pondering, did joey make it home, or was it someone else who drove the trooper home, or could someone had been with joey?

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  72. Hi 12:10 PM, yeah, I don’t know about the comments Tim Miller made, I mean you gotta consider maybe was even a little upset spending all that money being called out then seeing inside knowledge border video that same day, like why should he have his team send drones or whatever out after learning that, in combo with the computer search. He did have up to the minute inside knowledge at that point, but now looking at it from the big picture didn’t mean their house was left like gee inside playhouses maybe she wanted to make them an indoor playroom with one of the many rooms she had in that new house with the play kitchen little top chefs kinda cool carefree unisex toys they had. I mean beds could have been like they said all sleeping in one room, for safety or because they wouldn’t have to clear as much when the new floor went down, cops went through it, keep one room messy the rest maybe easier to clear fairly vacant.

    Honestly childhood people who knew MM said he was always kind of different, that probably transcended into adulthood, and who knows. As for Kenneth, perhaps he kind of had that shy antisocial vibe Summer had not really wanting to be in the spotlight, caring, wanting to help but kind of skittish self-conscious being on camera.

    So now that you said Diane plus mcgyver both claimed to have introduced SM and JM I don’t know. But, I was just wondering why good friends or not why introduce an attractive girl you knew to another guy. Not really invested in the theory thinking well that could have been a set-up like they were looking for a rich guy, or you know whatever you and she didn’t hit it off, she was more serious minded, and even though you dug her could keep it on the down-low. His Christmas video of them (if it was him shooting that) did seem to awkwardly skip over her a couple of times.

    I don’t know about dogs, if you’re a dog owner and you have inside dogs, do you want to put them outside if you plan to be gone for a few hours up to 4 days for understanding that they’d go on the floor? How long can dogs go without eating up to 4 days?

    Yeah, that sounds spot on what a protective, borderline paranoid mom would think, let them play inside, rather than out even though the backyard is enclosed somewhat anyway.

    Um, I don’t know what they would have last been wearing. Could be what they had on if indeed that was them on video tape, unless 4 days was not proved and inaccurate. I would think if JM made it home he made it home in his truck since MM said his truck was in the (driveway?) and tires were never backed out over paper dated Feb 5th morning after. Who knows, maybe she texted JM as opposed to calling him because she was about to jump into the shower and wanted an answer but not necessarily wanted to converse. Or he could have been with someone and she didn’t know when he’d finish so didn’t want to interrupt him.

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  73. So what fits in with VOLUNTARY?
    Isuzu Trooper found at border, locked. No fingerprints other than McStay’s? Border tape, family of 4, (only family of 4 in all the tape they reviewed??? Yeah that seems them then huh).

    INVOLUNTARY?
    SM’s activity Feb 3rd, 4th, etc. Ross (bags, towels for home?), baby gift for sister, looking at window treatments, planning or looking into birthday party for her own little one, laminate flooring, new appliances, possible indoor playroom for boys, wanting painting finished, plans to return Saturday for paining.

    FITS EITHER?
    Computer search January 2010, passports to Mexico, travel with children, 4 days between Feb 4th last seen to Feb 8th car towed, Izuzu Trooper locked at border, cell phones pinged up to Feb 6th off Highway 76 cell tower by old bridge, Rosetta Stone Spanish discs (though who knows if also Italian?), alias Summer, Lisa, Virgina, Aranda, Martelli, McStay, claimed Italian ethnicity 1978 DOB, Pods in storage, LE spoke of spoiled foods counter, snacks left out, dirty diaper, etc. “Anger” homeopathic medicine online inquiry, JM older son, and reports of his stepdad, dogs left outside, no food, just got a new puppy, closet, high heels, furs, everything a mess, JM truck unlocked in driveway, greeting cards, camcorder inside, untouched money $100 g’s combined, Izuzu Trooper leaving neighbor’s video triggered capturing bottom portion glimpse of vehicle leaving driveway, house locked MM went through kitchen window?

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  74. Mr. Or Ms. Voluntary-Involuntary-Fits Either? I like the way you split this mystery (which is about as puzzling as the Marie Celeste) along those three axes of circumstance.

    Your guess is as good as mine.

    Sometimes it almost seems TOO perfect as a mystery and I wonder if it all isn't a brilliant publicity hoax designed to raise money, which it certainly has done.

    And yet the reward for a family of four remains at a measly one thousand bucks.

    What are the McStays (like Michael) doing with all that goodwill money?

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  75. Commenters. I liked reading your thoughts and the information you shared.

    I could see one or possibly even two large playhouses inside the house (if the kids fought over it, say).

    But five playhouses (these are big things) throughout the house.

    I don't want to sound nitpicking or captious, but that's just freakin bizarre.

    Who does that?

    It's creepy. Those things take up a LOT of room too.

    It looks like something that would mean something to someone with a serious mental illness.

    Houses within houses within houses.

    It's just surreal.

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  76. Well maybe the playhouses were also convenient to give the little boys something to do while all the building was going on, so they wouldn't get hurt, or get their hands on wet paint, etc.

    I only saw two playhouses in the video with Tim Miller, like one for each of them, then some other smaller dollhouses outside the master upstairs. Then thought, well they had a nice new house with a lot of bedrooms, so maybe she was going to make one upstairs an inside joint playroom just for the kids in addition to their bedrooms since she already had an office downstairs. They show really nice playrooms all the time in Pottery Barn ad magazines, where she may have got some inspiration based on a the kitchen set in vehicle they had yet to bring inside (if it wasn't a gift for someone else which I doubt).

    But it seemed like they were active outdoor people too, one of the neighbors described JM as always out in front like with the kids, they went on bikes and the boys had their own bike seats, they seemed to know that park by beach at old rental, they even had little yellow plastic caution kid playing signs, there's a picture of them outside in their backyard at Halloween, and they were talking about building an outside play area like swings and what not in their new backyard. So eventually they probably would have spent equal time outdoors when all the hectic building materials were off the floor, and workers out of their house, etc.

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  77. hello everyone, playhouses were gifts maybe. i went back and watched the tim miller video again, he said "who stripped the beds and why?" then said "well it's not my job". when mike mcstay and summers brother started talking over each other was when tim asked where their stuff was stored. they both seemed not to be able to answer this very well. i'm not accusing mike or scott of anything, but what a predicament it could be if they did know something about their relatives that wasn't on the up & up and not being able to tell for fear for themselves and other family members. the garage was jam packed full of boxes that was attributed to summers internet shopping, and brother said something was always coming ups or fedex. i've learned craigslist stuff isn't shipped by fedex or ups, so this was different stuff. i'm sure LE checked out for stolen goods. thinking along the lines, business partner hiding things in their garage, brother covers claiming summer was a big internet shopper. i'm a big armchair detective. the lawsuits: copyright lawsuit against naturally dana point by Zen co. commercial lawsuit against EIP. and consumer debt suit against CBP Family Partnership. per websleuth one of the dates on the Bank of America lawsuit looks like the initial file date was 12/31/2009 shortly before they went missing. in regards to the internet search for passport requirements for kids going to mexico, being they didn't act on actually getting the passports, could mean they planned on a vacation in the future maybe after remodeling was done and were just checking things out. i'm going back and check about the dogs again, to see when the neighbors were bothered with the dogs barking. i know my dog would not stand to be left out overnight and would have started a fuss within an hr. if they went somewhere willingly or by force we don't know. she and he were both out and about all day. there were no phone calls that would have lured them out. unless there was some kind of arrangement made at the business mtg in rancho cocomunga to meet someone that evening. the accounting of how long that mtg was and where else joe went if anywhere after that mtg is not known. maybe (and i hope they did flee and get away) there was some kind of upcoming meeting, even the next day that they were running from. the loose window in the back kind of bothers me, how easy it was for the brother to get in the house. just thought, someone steals the trooper, drives off at 7:47,around to the back,another one goes in the house thru the window. they could have all been in bed. take family out the back at gunpoint, family forced to drive away gunman goes back in house, strips beds to make it look like they hadn't gone to bed that night, leaves food out like they left earlier, puts dogs out, locks door. someone the dogs knew.

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  78. I agree 3:18 PM, if Summer was the kind of person who had everybody sleeping in one room because it was safer, big enough for all of them, she was waiting for the remodeling to be done anyway before she set up the real beds, could keep the majority of the mess in the master, etc. and worried about a knock on her front door late at night, etc. then why was she leaving a downstairs kitchen window open, or unlocked, or loose, or able to pry, whatever the scenario was if MM didn't straight have to break in.

    About the dogs, even if it didn't take place at the house, I guess they could have sensed something was wrong and that could have contributed to the barking. Their older dog Bear was trying to dart around and sniff in the video with Tim Miller but MM was interrupting all calling him by JM's and SM's nickname for him, etc.

    The boxes in the garage were probably some of their household items that they could fit to store until the remodeling was done and they could bring the pods. That way they didn't have to pay for so many pods if they could store a few things themselves. I don't know what was up with MM in that video, there were a few times he seemed odd but maybe that's his way and his thinking was he was being nice to offer her brother to answer some of the questions, but about the pods I'd think MM would have that knowledge down pretty tight by then in talking to LE and all, but I don't know maybe his memory was overloaded with different details and it took a minute to be able to communicate, plus as they stated Summer's mom knew about that question too.

    The air mattresses, yeah I guess could have been stripped by LE, or Summer to wash the sheets but she never got to it. As a reminder until another load was done, or to put new ones on, or maybe shake out crumbs if they were snacking up there and got busy with other things.

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  79. anonymous 10:22, mark fuhrman commenting on a different case once said the messier the house, the harder it is to find clues. i think the disorder and mess in the house might have been staged after they were abducted. i question if the dogs were there all those 4 days especially the first night, because like i said just from my experience of course a dog who is used to being kept inside gets awfully noisy if there is a change in routine.unless Bear was different. the window could have been loose because the perpetrator had loosened it going in. this abduction might have been a work in progree for some time, house cased, movements followed etc. they just didn't realize the neighbor across the street had a personal surveillance camera that was motion activated and that the headlights of the trooper would set it off, creating a timeline. if it wasn't for that there would be absolutely nothing to determine when they left. too bad it couldn't capture who was getting in the trooper. i found a few things on websleuth from the north country times feb. 3 2011, 1 year after they disappeared. these are statements from dugal their keys and cell phones are missing as are his passports,his wallet and her purse. these items are of the sort a person takes with them in a normal situation, not abduction. joe spent early afternoon feb 4 in rancho cucamonga with an employee discussing a custom project they were building for a client. cell phone records and other evidence indicates he returned to fallbrook a few hr later (he wasn't home as of 5:57) i suspect they left in a hurry dugal says. EIP was sold for $100,000 new website for EIP is http://www.waterfeaturesupply.com/ABUS.html (who are the new owners?) someone posted on websleuth 1-17-12 that there was a fallout with DK in jan. 2009 threatening to shut down the website or something similarly drastic, joey ended up giving him a 2nd hand car and money. on 1-17-12 a poster is wprking on getting approval to post what they know about the large contract(s) joey had in progress at the time he went missing. for now all this poster can say is that they have seen the contract for the company in saudi arabia and it was real. as they understood it, the contract was filled and the water features delivered and installed after joey disappeared. it was to their understanding, that CM actually flew to saudi arabia to oversee the assembly. on 1-18-12 this poster goes on to say joey was actually working on 2 lg contracts at the time of his disappearance. one just described and an ongoing contract for water features to be installed in the lobby area of a chain of car washes across the country for a major company in cincinnati,ohio who had purchased and/or were in the process of building a supposed total of 2000 over the next 5 years starting in the summer of 2009. this would have been huge. joey had designed and built a couple of proto types for the company which they had paid for and EIP had rec'd a deposit toward future builds. poster doesn't know what happened to the deal but supposes it was part of what DK took over and later sold. joey was the designer/ salesman. he didn't travel much other than in the southern, ca area and his father mentioned he traveled to las vegas several times when working with the bellagio hotel and casino. the 3 lawsuits where they were being sued, just thought maybe they did nothing wrong, people are sue crazy nowadays to attain money. and the pyramid schme joe was involved with in the past (can't remember the date0 he wasn't the originator of it but one of 3 guys involved, maybe he was duped himself, he wouldn't be the first. besides the mention of mexican connections, we have references to las vegas and saudi arabia. i still go back to my first theory that their disappearance is related to revenge, ego, pettiness from a long ago feud and the problems clashes with business are just normal occurences and had nothing to do with the disappearance. sorry for the long post

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  80. Hey, I appreciated your long post. I really never saw any information that the business was making the kind of money where J.M. could have had "hundreds of thousands" in cash per DK in the Ling documentary. So I've always wondered about the veracity of that statement. The one website manifestion I had seen looked cheesy and amateurish to me and I found it hard to believe it generated a lot of confidence/business. But if he had contracts with Saudi firms, the Bellagio, etc. you know that's not small change. That's serious money. So this really convinces me even more that they willingly disappeared. The problem with the "coming through the window" scenario and abduction is that no traces of anyone else were found in the house and the fact that J.M. was free to make a phone call shortly thereafter to his business associate from the Bonsall area. If they had been abducted, he would not have been able to make this call or it would have been a distress call. Also, I don't see anybody coming through that window at the time which lines up with their leaving. It would have been a middle of the night thing to take the family (who was surely awake then) by surprise. DK worries me. I'd heard that anecdote before (about DK pressuring JM for money--I hadn't heard the car too). But if they willingly left (and I believe they did) and are alive, DK's selling the business was probably authorized beforehand. I'm guessing the money was then handled by either DK or whoever sold the biz for J.M. (did he notarize any paperwork suspiciously close to the disappearance giving power-of-attorney to someone else? or did M.M. or blood relative of either JM or SM handle that. If so...even MORE suspicious). I'm guessing the money was handed off to third or even to fourth party to use courier service or wire somehow but not through US banks. Or whoever they trusted might have stiffed them once they were south of the border and at whatever destination. They could be in Europe, Asia, anywhere. I'm sure they intended on a beach life but when their case blew up as huge internationally as it now is, my guess is they realized that even remote South America would not be a good place to hide. They could have crossed back over into the U.S. but good luck hiding out permanently anywhere here. DK really gives me a creepy feeling. If you have a sociopath in the mix, all bets are off about willful disappearance. But I think JM was a pretty smart guy. If he was dealing with a sociopath, I think he might have known that. And that might be part of the reason for the willful disppearance. If a guy will squeeze you for things like that and win, he might try stepping up the ante. And you can't win an argument with a socipath because he will just kill you to get what he wants. I don't think PM is "in the loop." I don't think anybody is. I think willful abduction. And if it's a matter of running for one's life, you're not gonna take the chance to tell anyone (or some people won't) because it's not just you. You also have to keep your wife and kids safe. I really think they're all alive.

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  81. Error: I said near the end of that post "I think willful ABDUCTION." Of course, I meant "willful DISAPPEARANCE." Sorry.

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  82. hi all, i'm just trying to find different explanations to what could have happened. i thouht maybe joe stopped at a craigs list address to pick up some toys for the kids on way home from business mtg, and if he carried a large amt of cash could have been a motive of robbery, but that doesn't explain the entire family going missing. the other theory i have is, the perps entered through that window in the back sometime around 7:30 with guns. put dogs in one of rooms downstairs or orders family to do this, took their keys, his wallet and her purse, hold them hostage there while one goes out the front and drives the tropper around to the back at 7:47. they are led out thru the back. joes call to merrit might have happened if his cell phone was bumped. phones are thrown into the overgrown bushes of bonsall bridge i thought i read summers phone pinged from the other side of the tower, so it must have been discarded there. (crying as i type) i think they were both dispatched there, one in one location and summer on the other side of the tower the kids? i can't go there. i can't see if summer and joe were running away that they would discard their phones off that bridge and keep on going. i think there was another vehicle involved. the trooper was probably put in someones garage for 4 days. wore gloves to drive to border. after joe and summer were dispatched, one vehicle goes back to houe, strips beds, dumps clothes on floor, leaves food around, eggs out, puts dogs out. i thought too that maybe joey had a mental break, but after this long i don't think they are alive.summer was in a save your house from foreclosure business and i believe there is no such thing, no reason for anyone to hire someone to pay a fee to have mortgage renegotiated. funny vernazza realty wanted to hire them back. who knows who might have had a grudge. the link to vernazza realty is http://www.vernazzarealty.com that and i thought as in previous post,that joey might have had someone laying for him.

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  83. sorry about the morbid post. the white coat the woman resembling summer was wearing in the border video, was it ever determined if she had a missing white coat? i believe it was white fur, i saw a picture of her in it i believe on pat mcstays website, it had a matching hat too.

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  84. Hi. Thanks for the comments. Hard to identify coat from film. Your theory about the "pocket dial" is wrong. Police interviewed his coworker about that call in which J.M. spoke with his business associate. What was said in that conversation has not been made public as far as I know, but there was an actual conversation. I don't think you need to cry, although if someone believed they were murdered I understand why you would be that upset--a massacre of an entire family is just hideous to even imagine. But I think they're all alive. Everything points in the direction of willful disappearance. For an idea of the sort of money they could have been carrying, read the previous posts about the high end commissions J.M.'s business was receving. These people are survivors.

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  85. hi 1:18 am i am so hopeful! another odd thought (i read but can't remember where) Homeland Security is involved with this case. this is really out there but with all the intelligence that gets gleaned from nepharious sources or undercover agents etc, could it have come to light that there was a hit planned on this family, and they were whisked away for their own good,with JM and SM not knowing anything about it in advance. Or maybe joeys business was so good maybe the mob ( not necessarily from mexico)did try to move in on him and he wouldn't play ball instead they fled, dropped everything, business sold to someone else, just like the woman when the mexican mob wanted to move in on her, she closed her business and went to canada. there are several psychic websites on the case that are kind of interesting: Missing Persons TV with BrianLadd of www.briansdreams.com on the dream discussion forum, he has a video on the mcstay family case #855 another is :Psychics unite to help find missing children with diane haymond. a poster by the name of kimberly reports a man going to their house, rings bell they know each other, the kids are happy to see him-dogs go outside since he is allergic to dogs-summer knew him first-he was there about a business deal then there is sudden aggression, man pulls a gun on family, joe tries to keep peace, summer freaks out. family is taken out of house at gunpoint, that is why they left so easily. the doors automatically lock when closed. this is a psychic prediction of course but what if this guy was the painter who disappeared, summer would be glad he came back

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  86. RE: hi all, i'm just trying to find different explanations to what could have happened.

    MY FEELING - MIGHT BE CIRCUMSTANSIAL LIKE THEY DIDN’T GIVE A WHOLE LOT OF THOUGHT JUST ENDED UP ADDING TO THE MYSTERY: Craigslist correspondence and probable meetings - Kitchen window; maybe not the source of kidnappers entering, but did someone leave it unlocked purposely? Maybe not, they seemed to use that window too in home videos so leave room for (negligence?). - Strips beds, dumps clothes on floor, leaves food around, eggs out, puts dogs out.

    MY FEELING - WOULDN’T DOUBT, PROBABLY HAD: Large amounts of cash, especially if able to purchase other (property(ies?)

    MY FEELING - PROBABLY DIDN’T WANT TO DO OR THOUGHT THEY’D BE BACK: Locking dogs outside. Unless you think they got new puppy for older dog knowing they’d be leaving. But still, hopefully not, because why get a baby dog.

    MY FEELING - FITS IN WITH DEAD OR VOLUNTARY MISSING: Took their keys, his wallet, her purse

    MY WONDER- Did he call Merrrit (whether Merritt answered or not) saying it’s on, remember what I told you during lunch, act accordingly.

    MY FEELINGS - BASED ON LAST CELL PHONE PINGS SIMUTANEOUSLY IF THAT IS THEM (THEM CROSSING BORDER ON VIDEO): Did they purposely ditch their own phones into overgrown bushes of Bonsall Bridge? Why trying to loose somebody? Fake their own disappearance? Scared of some creeps who knew them?

    MY WONDER - JM conversation with his mother (on way home last day seen?) checking in? Just came up his (dizzy spells?) to make conversation. Wanted to talk to her one last time without saying goodbye? Just coincidence would have talked to her anyway and translated something?

    MY WONDER - Imagine they’d have as much or (possibly more?) fountain business all those tourist hotels by the ocean in Mexcio, South America, etc. etc. etc.

    MY WONDER – Were (WHOEVER) family, friends, business associates (WHOEVER) shady enough that they’d want to flee?

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  87. Hello and thanks commenters. Commenter at 01:22, I think you're the first to link me to any psychics on this case. While I'll admit, I'm skeptical of psychic involvement in criminal cases (I've seen the raw numbers re: psychic accuracy and overall they're TERRIBLE!) I have seen a very small number of cases where psychics mysteriously held the answers, so what could it hurt at this point (as long as they're not after money--which they usually are). It's terrible when psychics come out and make absolute pronouncements about someone's loved one being in this lake or that ditch...and the body is not there. So the psychic has put someone through hell. For nothing. But attention and money. But if there's a .00001 chance they're right, I might listen. But I wouldn't give them any money or put them on t.v. unless they solved the mystery FIRST.

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  88. hi everybody, no i wouldn't pay for any info.from psychics going back to the theory of voluntary disappearance, this seems the most likely. this website is really interesting www.panamalaw org/how to disappear. there has to be someone after one or both of them to do this. from websleuth 4-9-10 a poster wrote one of the places the mcstays were seen in mexico was barra navidad or barra de navidad which is in jalisco. under real estate in barra navidad is crazy cactus real estate. when poster clicked on crazy cactus real estate a picture of tracy ross comes up. questions if that is summers sister. i haven't had time to check it out yet but i will

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  89. Poster at 8:09. Are you being disingenuous at leaving that post. Because you surely know that's misinformation you're spreading. If you got that from the site you mention, you should know that someone corrects this information right there and says that Summer's sister is Tracy RUSSELL, NOT Tracy Ross. So this is useless information and WRONG. I won't post any more comments that irresponsibly repeat incorrect info taken out of context.

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  90. PM posted an instant message threat on his page where he blocked the person's name typing to Joey but in one part of what Joey was replying joey states" you're a great guy Dan, " or something to that effect so I'm Ass U Ming that it was DK threatening to take the web page down. Joey copied this conversation and emailed it to Summer's account. PM found it while going through their emails. Now this may be a stupid question but supposedly DK is a great computer hacker guru, could he have hacked their computer and preformed the computer searches about Mexico etc? Someone asked this on PM's page and I didn't see an answer.

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  91. Interesting. I have heard PM is very suspicious of DK. I can't say I blame him for thinking that way. I think the hacking scenario you outline here is extremely improbable. If that were even possible, he could have created much more "damning" fake evidence as to why the family had disappeared, making one or both of the adults to look "dirty." But this is just la-la-land fantasy territory.

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  92. i watched a video of Disappeared on amazon, i might be nit picking but the investigator commenting on the nighbors surveillance tape of mcstays trooper leaving the driveway that night said something to the effect "we are almost certain it is the mcstays vehicle" not this is the mcstays vehicle but we are almost certain, that leads me to believe there might be doubt as to who this vehicle belonged to. on the laura ling documentary, i tuned in a little late on the Laura Ling documentary, it isn't available to view on youtube or amazon, but might be later, brother mike was commenting on their marriage, that they did have some problems they were working on, and that joey deeply loved her. went on to say summer was tough and got tough with joe and he'd give it back to her. showed pix of joe with short wavy hair, white tee shirt, moustache and sunglasses. anyone see theis? speaking of pictures, sometimes summer looks very asian, and other times not. strange as to the izuzu found at the border, per an unknown viewer recognized the toys in the vehicle as being purchased at ross store at 2:36pm 2:36 is the time mentioned where summer bought the beach bags, infant pj's and jacket at ross feb 4, so she must have bought the sink, stove and kids videos too.so she must have had the trooper that day, and joe had the truck. heres the link http://www.10news.com/video/26459159/index.html the detective said there could not have been anyone else in the trooper besides the family, there was no room.. also said the parking lot was high traffic so unlikely they were abducted there. still doesn't answer if that is really the mcstays on video going into mexico. still hoping they are ok

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  93. going back to day 1, in aug when the mcstays stopped paying their rent, i wonder what that was all about, since they were able to pay it. they must have had a good relationship with landlord up until then because they rented in same place for long time. possible a different landlord took over, maybe not. did they pay by the month or lease? did they leave with hard feelings. assuming the rent was high, estimating it was the same as a house paym't, over a grand a month, the landlord would have been out 4-5 grand. were there any arrangements to pay this up. were they being taken to court over it. did they rent from a person or real estate company. did it take long to find a new tenant. i feel that they didn't plan to live at the avo house long term. i think that is why they didn't move their furniture in, put things away and just live as it was. the house didn't even seem to need painting by watching video. they could have later tackled one room at a time with painting and new flooring. so i think maybe they planned to sell at a profit soon after they were through remodeling and buy a house at the beach. there might have been a buyer already. off the subject heres a ripoff report associated with chase merritt http://www.ripoffreport.com/search/c...-by-chase-aspx. not accusing or slandering him, just wondering what was going on in all these peoples lives and how these things occurred. i watched beth holloway"s segment and disappeared again last night on amazon, i have both in the video library. for the first time, i could see the resemblance of the family walking over the border. i think it was joey, summer and the kids and they did not look to be in distress. another thought about their cellphones, his battery died after the 8:58p call to merritt. hers pinged from other side of tower until sat. am at 10:59 so i think they could have been staying somewhere in the vacinity of that pinging phone. could have discarded them at this place, even a dumpster and bought new untraceable ones. ( or have been held captive in this place and brainwashed for 4 days, if that is even possible) just some thoughts.

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  94. oops that link to c merritt doesn't work, try chase merritt ripoff report and it should come up. i have never heard mike or susan say, they tried over and over to reach them on their cellphones, makes me wonder if they tried or just relied on email.

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  95. Hi. Thanks for your comments and thoughts. I agree with you in believing they willfully disappeared. They probably didn't pay because at that point they either already knew they were going to disappear--or were keeping their options open and keeping solvent. And I agree about cellphone. If they HAD been abducted they wouldn't have been free to have that conversation that night. Or it would have been a distress call. I suspect they were moving money (possibly using a courier service and/or getting fake i.d.s made). The Spanish Rosetta Stone language instruction was probably no coincidence. We tend to find it unfathomable that a family wold just disappear--but there are abundant facts (not least of which is the videotape of the crossing) which show this family was well aware of what they were doing and chose this path. I don't believe they were "set up" by anyone.

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  96. RE: Comment 11:51 AM

    FEEL they probably didn't bring in their furniture to the new house because she wanted to get JM moving and do the upgrades he promised so she chose to to live out of boxes to hurry him up, otherwise he probably would have dragged it out longer than she wanted and they were already going on four months. If she would have let him tackle one room at a time he probably would have taken forever and it would have looked tacky considering she already thought the house was ugly. Being in real estate she probably had her mind made up on what she thought was ugly for some time. Those upgrades were probably the only way it was tolerable to her. Plus it sounded like she wanted that painting done and was getting (I don't know what would be the right word) huffy maybe.

    HOW many months did they not pay rent in San Clemente? Was it just the last month's rent like maybe they said take the last month out of our deposit? Because you're not suppose to do that, you're suppose to pay your last month and landlord will return your deposit or portion if it wasn't needed to deduct for anything. A lot of people try to say take my last month out of my deposit and at that point the landlord can give a pay or quit notice, take you to court, etc. Or maybe they wanted to raise the rent and it was an old place that they weren't willing to pay more for especially if they had been there for a considerable amount of time they may have been annoyed if they were asked for more per month. Or who knows maybe the landlord wanted them to renew a lease rather than let them go month to month if their lease was up. Plus nobody wants to live in an apartment forever, they were probably saving to move anyway and that may have contributed to them looking for a house sooner rather than later.

    DO you think it possible that they wanted to get away from unsavory business partners so they could keep a good reputation in the fountain business so they left everything behind? Or do you think they didn't want to be associated with anybody suing somebody they worked with?

    DON'T think they were in the vicinity of that Bonsall Bridge where the phones continued to receive incoming activity up until the time batteries may have run out. It was only a pedestrian bike walking path. Not like a place to camp out. Do you think they could have thrown their phones their for some reason? Would you think you're phone would break if you threw it? If that's what you were hoping you could just break it yourself though so what could it be if they left their phones behind?

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  97. hi 11:51am I thought they stopped paying rent in August They moved around thanksgiving in Nov.so they didn't pay rent for 4 months. Joeys BD is in August, he had turned 40 In August is when he started getting sick. I don't know if all these things mean anything or not, just throwing it out there. It just sounds like August wasn't a good month. I'll have to listen to Beth Holloways segment and Disappeared agaain, because I think Susan Blake said on one of those shows something to the effect that when Summer found out it would be a step to her dream home ,she thoroughly threw herself into renovating the avo house. I'm assuming she meant they would sell it for a profit. Chase Merrit bought 2 or 3 foreclosed houses (one at a time) and made improvements and sold each one at a profit. i have to look up the dates he did this, right now just wonder if he gave Joey some advice on doing this, but i can't remember if he did this prior to them going missing in 2009 or after. I don't know if they were running away or distancing themselves from business partners, if you think about it, they could have done this without disappearing. Just go out of business, have Dan sell it, leave the house. It would look unusual but not any worse than this.Something drove them underground but what? They weren't running from the law. I would think if Summer knew they would be going underground that evening, she would have been weepy, wouldn't you think? Someone on the web suggested maybe they did go out to get a hamburger at Nessy's that night, and were kidnapped there. I think maybe not kidnapped there but they ran from there for some reason, a threat and hid out. The other scenario that Joey came home and told her they had to leave. I would think she would think this sounded crazy and would call someone. I mean it would take some convincing. Another scenario, undercover LE came in and said "your life is in danger you have to go" I was watching In Session, the Dippolito case. Wife had hired a hit man to kill her husband and hired an undercover agent instead. On the day of the hit, LE burst into his home saying "you have to leave right away, your wife has hired someone to kill you" Right away i thought of the Mcstays. I hope this is what happened to them. And it could be like Pat Mcstay said, they left under a cloud of misunderstanding. I wish i knew what he meant by that. Back to the cell phones, they way i understood it,that cell phone tower covered a wide radius, i think one and a half miles or more, so the phone could have been north, south, east, or west of that tower, not just on the bridge. ( that sounds spooky to be on the foot bridge at night) like i said before someone suggested maybe they had gone to Nessys, and JM made the 8:58 call to Merritt at that location.I don't know anything about the area, never been there, i question how far could you go in any direction and get a ping off the tower, and what places are on the route that they could have stayed at. I was really concerned about the loose/open window and how easy it was for MM to get in, but after all this time, remembered they were painting, window cracked for ventilation possibly. When MM said the business partner called him, concerned because he couldn't reach Joey and hadn't heard from him in days, did MM at that time, try calling JM and Sm's cellphones. That would be the first thing i would do. Going to the house and finding the dogs outside with food and not being sure what arrangements were made for the dogs or where they were and when they planned to come home, I would right away try the cellphones. Maybe I'm nitpicking again. Oh this is awful but you all know what i'nm thinking and i hope the Mcstay family doesn't read this but it wouldn't be the first time a family member takes out another. It was a full 2 weeks before they were declared missing, lots of clues could have been lost in that time. What do you think?

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  98. there have been quite a few posts on the Mcstay website as well as Websleuths questioning why there hasn't been any searching in the Bonsall area where SM's phone last pinged. Could this be because of the last message JM gave to CM that night? CM was never interviewed publicly and the contents of the last message was never revealed but he did speak to LE

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  99. RE: 1:08 PM

    HMM, so I wondered what would prompt them to stop paying rent in August then? Wanting to use the money they would have paid in rent for their down payment so they didn’t have to touch their other money maybe?

    YEAH, that’d be interesting if somebody did a chart for JM for the month of August. Must have been something happening in his houses.

    THAT makes sense, that SM probably did plan to sell one day and get a house she really wanted eventually. I mean I don’t know how much more they would have gotten for the upgrades they were doing because those improvements seemed pretty basic, but yeah, would definitely help give the house more appeal. I read other people wondering why they paid more than the house was listed for and I imagine because they wanted their offer to be accepted, or you know those listed prices are never even actual even.

    AGREE, they could distance themselves from business partners without disappearing, but then why ditch their phones? From a police standpoint it seems scary like foul play, but if it’s them on the video then what did they think they could be traced through their phones somehow? If it wasn’t to disappear why wouldn’t they mention looking up information about going into Mexico to anybody then? I mean why keep it secret? Could it have been something short notice, like within the week that (they?) looked regarding travel to Mexico to the time they disappeared?

    BUT if they went to get a hamburger, and were kidnapped, I’d think it too much a coincidence that they may be in that border video, looked up Mexico on the computer, and went on Hwy 76 that ultimately led back to the beach cities they knew so well. They might have wanted to go that way for some reason as opposed to taking the 15 right into Mexico. Then why the 4 days they thought they successfully ditched somebody or what?

    WHAT about the possibility that Summer had somebody after her from her past, and that’s why she used different variations of her name, changed her name, and lead people to believe she had another date of birth? Do you think Pat Mcstay meant they left under a cloud of misunderstanding because of her different names coming to light, because he doesn’t believe that holds the answer, and it just added to the mystery?

    SO if the cell tower covers a radius of 1.5 miles, do you think the reason the bridge was brought up might be because in every other direction it is just land with dry brush that a person would have to hike rough open land to be that distance away from the tower in any direction?

    YEAH, in their Christmas video I think you could see that the window was opened, so I imagine they did use it. But, you would think that one of them would make sure to lock-up each night. I wonder if it would have been easy for somebody other than them that was inside the house for something legit to make sure it was open without them knowing so they could come back in that way.

    DO you think it’s odd that the business partner not only tried JM’s phone, but SM’s as well to get a hold of JM after the 4th? No answers to the phone the very night they may have disappeared is scary. Umm hmm, so you’re saying immediately after finding the house empty you as MM would have tried them on their phones again right there at that time. That makes sense.

    I know so many clues could have been tampered with, destroyed, hidden, etc. since so many days went by before they were reported missing.

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  100. RE: 6:11 PM

    Maybe searching the Bonsall Bridge area is not something LE is allowed to do because they don't have authorization from the department since they might be voluntarily missing? And for a private search, it would take people, permission, someone to organize, etc. I wonder if that land by the Bonsall Bridge area is private property, belongs to the state, or is Indian land, and maybe there is no trespassing. I don't see why they couldn't at least look into getting permission though.

    So what other then voluntary missing could fit in with the cell phones?

    If it was only to go into Mexico for a short time and turn right around, why not keep their phones with them and why the need for four days if that were the case?

    Trying to think of a few ideas, but nothing seems to make sense.

    Like could somebody made them ditch the phones and they were able to outrun that person then let some time pass before they went into Mexico? But then they would have had to have some idea that person might come in order to search computer about travel requirements?

    Or could it have been they wanted to draw attention away from the border and got new phones? But then no because why park the car there?

    Does a cell phone have to be in tact to ping off a tower?

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  101. Hi all, IMHO, the searches on the web for passports to mexico for kids might have been innocent, like maybe they talked about taking a vacation after they were done remodeling, and just wanted to check it out like what would be needed to go there. Summer could have changed her mind about it being too dangerous. I change my mind all the time about things. The phones are surely a mystery. I don't remember anyone saying straight out in words that they dialed SM and JM's cell phones and there was no answer.If this wasn't said it leads me to believe that no one mentioned trying to call their cellphones because they knew they didn't have them because maybe they were involved with their disappearance. I think i am overly cynical and suspicious at times. I think they said Joeys phone pinged off the tower at 4:25pm that day indicating he was close to home, somewhere on the highway? Just curious about the traffic near the Bonsall tower at night, sparse or heavy? Someone on the Websleuth said it's awfully dark and scary and not a good place to have car trouble. It would really be awful if Summer was incapacitatd somehow and couldn't call out but left the phone on to signal for help.I just wonder too, could someone else have driven the trooper to the border using gloves, would that be possible not to disturb the mcstays prints and not leave any of their own? If an investigator would say, no that is not possible, it was the Mcstays that drove the Trooper and no one else, then I guess they really did go over the border and maybe beyond.

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  102. Thanks for your comment 7:27. I think you've reasoned yourself into the most likely occurrence...that they willingly abandoned the vehicle, crossed into Mexico and left their lives behind. If they were just visiting, there would have been no reason to leave the vehicle behind.

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  103. Hi, I think a cellphone has to be turned on and have good battery charge, then it pings for outgoing and incoming calls, but if it is smashed or broken i guess it might or might not work depending how broken it is. So apparently the family drove off at 7:47 with their cell phones, we can assume they were under no duress because Joe made a call to CM at 8:58pm and his cell pinged off the Bonsall tower, then his battery went dead. What could have happened then? I was just rereading the article about finding their cell pings. I am assuming Summer was in 2 locations. It said some of the incoming calls to her phone pinged from the same as Joes and the remaining calls pinged from the other side of the tower. Its so mysterious.

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  104. 8:34 hi and thanks for your comment. It's not really that mysterious if you accept the notion that they willingly disappeared and didn't want to be traced. They got rid of the cell phones. I believe that's them crossing on the videotape. I think they're all alive. Nobody else's fingerprints in the vehicle and no sign of a struggle. The vehicle parked within walking distance of the border at a time that matches up with the four seen on the videotape. It all points only one direction: willful disappearance. But the good news is: everyone is alive. The real mystery is why they left. Usually people will only do this sort of disappearing act under a threat on one's life (or lives). But mental illness is also a possibility. I explored that on a post elsewhere on this blog speculating about Summer Mcstay's behavior prior to the family's disappearance and how it synchs up with character traits of people suffering from borderline personality disorder--right down to the constant changes of name, ethnicity, age, etc., which can only mean either criminality or mental illness really. Because people don't keep changing their name for no reason.

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  105. So what if they researched travel related to Mexico for whatever it could be, like is it possible they wanted to buy building materials for their remodel at a lower price, or they were going to meet someone there, or wanted to cut through and check on property they owned if any in that direction, etc. etc. etc. whatever but basically some reason other than fleeing, and after looking up general travel guidelines they deduced that there was more chance on foot, at night, to blend in with the weekend crowd who live in Mexico returning home on their passes, because that way possibly not having a current passport for her or birth certificate on hand for one of the children, they figured it was less likely they would be asked to produce documents (even if it’s not always checked) but then driving in, stopped at inspection booths, questioned what is your business in Mexico, etc. Plus they weren’t crazy about parking in Mexico or taking the time to get the insurance to drive in anyway, and planned to return to their car thinking it would be safer on the CA side in the shopping plaza lot, etc., because so many other factors seems like they had no intention of fleeing, but then what could be the reason for their phone activity and location of phones before they seem to cut off, as well as the four days?

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  106. I'vw made a mistake about the time of Joes last call I thought it was 8:58, but it was at 8:28pm. IR3 site claims that both of their phones pinged a pair of T-mobile towers along Hwy 76 in Bonsall, at a point 7 miles west of the fmily's home in Fallbrook. To drive 7 miles from home in a 30mph zone would take them 15 minutes to get to that area, so would have gotten there around 8:02. They must have stayed at this point for another 26 minutes, to then make the call to CM at 8:28. During those 26 minutes did they meet their contact who helped them disappear? LE said JM went straight home after the meeting in Rancho Cocumunga but based on his phone records we know he was not at home until after 5:57pm. During that time he could have purchased supplies, diapers, got things ready for the disappearance in other words. They said the battery died in Joe's phone, but how would they know that? It could have just been shut off. By 8:28 JM and SM would be concerned about getting the kids to bed, they were 15 minutes from their own home at 8:28, isn't that a killer. For Summers phone to be pinging on the other side of the river, I can't understand how it got there. They don't release the times of the text messages Summer rec'd and that might be helpful to retrace their steps..They say there were 8 messages, 3 on Friday from Mcgyver, 2 from DK on Sat, the identity of the last texter isn't mentioned, just said it came in at 10:59. Is there an air strip on the other side of the river? Just a thought, if they were murdered out there (I don't think they were) wouldn't it be too difficult toaccomplish it was so dark there.

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  107. I think people are incorrectly assuming police withheld information about SM’s cell phone pings because as far back as March 29, 2010 I see mention of her phone receiving text messages on the 5th and the 6th, and the pings off the phone come from near the house, so it may just be that until the E! Investigates special aired, no other news source did as thorough a job of presenting it. Though it is interesting to learn they took the 76 not the 15. Makes me wonder if they headed back to the general area in the direction of their old neighborhood. Maybe stop off at his warehouse if he still had a lease there, or were more familiar making runs to San Ysidro that way maybe if he’d ever done it before, or met somebody that way, whatever the reason might be.

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  108. I just wanted to add to my previous post, I don't see how if they were murdered that night by the bridge that someone could have hidden the bodies in the dense overgrown riverbed in the dark. Is there anyway the Mcstays could have driven the Trooper under the bridge and be out of sight? Being her phone pinged off the same tower as his for part of the calls tells me she or someone else moved the location of her phone. How do you think the investigation would have gone if they were reported missing Fri. night.? They would have located the pinging phone I'm sure. It's like whomever knew they wouldn't be reported missing and left the phone on, whether she left the phone on or someone else. If it was a crime, wouldn't they shut it off, and especially when they moved it's location wouldn't they see the second time that the phone was on? I'm trying to look for a clue in everything . The youtube tribute to the mcstays by mcgyver is so sad, listening to the lyrics for clues, "Little Bird" and later on "ther's rats in the kitchen." ring any bells to anyone? Also the email between joe and dan k. when joe says "you're a good man dan" did dan tell joe he would do a favor for him in some way and then joe emailed this to summer so much as to say it's ok, nothing to worry about, dan will take care of it, when in reality, dan had no intention of helping them and maybe caused their demise. The Mcstay family trusts him so he must be ok, just no other clues.

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  109. I don't think they could have been parked under the bridge just passing time, just because based on what they showed of it looks like it isn't a bridge you can drive on, the the type that once was a driving bridge and now has posts in which vehicles can't fit through. Also underneath just looked like overgrowth of plants typical to California on the hills in that area. Plus the actual entrance to get on the 76 by there looked like plenty of cars use it.

    I really think if another tower picked up SM's incoming cell activity that it wasn't because her phone moved, but because sometimes various towers will pick up a cell in the same location.

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  110. Hi 10:14pm Thank you for responding. Looking at pictures of the Bonsall bridge online, the foliage is really dense there, and searching would be difficult, time consuming, but not impossible. Do you know if you can park your car on the hwy and walk to and on the old bridge? I thought maybe they had done that and walked on the bridge and threw the phones over. It seems strange but everything about the case is. I read somewhere, will have to look it up again, "Joe's phone pinged at 8:28pm, oddly from the same location as the 4:45pm call." I wish the writer would have elaborated why they thought it was odd. Speculating maybe Joe never did make it home, and he was there since 4:45pm? LE must have asked CM about his opinion of Joe's frame of mind that day at the meeting, did he look sick or complain about anything. I would like to know. I think there are a lot of missing pieces to this story. So we know the vehicle left the house at 7:47pm, they must have driven on hwy 76, they would have been at the old Bonsall bridge around 8:02p and they could have kept on driving for 26 minutes until 8:28p when he placed the call to CM. I wonder, did CM think it anything unusual that Joe spoke calmly and strictly about business? Was it his usual demeanor to speak calmly and strictly about business? I guess it is possible they were just driving around and didn't make any stops. Someone mentioned one of the pings could have come from the area of the truckstop, maybe indicating they were going towards San Clemente. I suppose they could have backtracked. In regards to Joes cellphone going dead, how can that be determined if the battery died vs it was shut off? Summers phone received no calls until Fri., doesn't specify when the calls came in but I think it's safe to assume the phone was discarded the night before. Just because it pinged off the tower, could be anywhere in the vacinity, not necessarily around the Bonsall bridge? I get the feeling they were just unraveling that night, driving around trying to decide what to do perhaps and finally just decided to leave it all. Maybe the pressures were too much and leaving was an act of self preservation. But the question of where they were for 4 days is baffling. They had to have eaten somewhere. They couldn't have gone home because they would have taken care of the dogs.

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  111. Why do we believe the four days so much, because their phones were pinging during a part of the 4 days seven miles from their house off some highway possibly near an old bridge within distance of the tower in combination with last footage captured of their vehicle leaving February 4th, until the time that vehicle was found near the border 4 days later and a border video may be them? Perhaps they left at night, with the possibility of crossing that night, and staked it out for 4 days, staying close to the border like a cash motel in San Ysidro maybe, watching what the average person was carrying, who border agents seem to stop, where to park, scoping out driving across versus walking, what hour is busy to blend in and cross, that way just in case they asked to see SM’s passport or any birth certificates they didn’t have on hand they hoped they were not as likely to be stopped going in. Or maybe JM went over that first night, while SM and boys hung back, possibly stayed with somebody on the San Ysidro side, and that’s why the guy doesn’t really look like JM in the border video because it was some other contact he had escorting her over planning that she was going to meet JM. If the computer search was them looking into travel to Mexico, perhaps they had about a week’s notice that it was possible they’d be going that way. You’d think people planning to flee there would have the travel guidelines down pat way in advance of a week.

    Maybe them locking their vehicle was an indication they planned to come back, thought they were parking somewhere safer than parking on the Mexico side wherever they planned on stopping, that way they don’t have to worry about stopping off by the border to get the vehicle insurance for Mexico. Probably figured you are more likely to be slowed down at the booths, they probably question one out of four cars (for example) whatever it is and even if you don’t look suspicious or anything a border agent might question you, are you bringing anything in, how long are you planning to stay, whatever their list of typical questions. Or who knows, if they had a contact selling them a car over there maybe they thought they might take the chance on coming back for their toys if they could still having the key to their vehicle. I don’t know, would a perp likely lock a car? I mean it be in their advantage to have someone else break in, easier target. Unless it was out of habit, but then any perp would have the keys to the vehicle.

    I don’t think you can look at SM’s prescription SUNglasses behind. Woman is photographed in daylight wearing her regular glasses plenty of times.

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  112. Interesting, the latest Inside Edition report on the case did another tour of the Avo house 2 yrs later and it is vacant. All the carpet and linoleum has been replaced with wood flooring. Don't write me off as batty but could the place be possessed with demonic spirits.

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  113. Good Morning, I read Joey paid off Dan K. in installments starting in the fall. Could be the reason SM & JM didn't pay their rent for 4 months? DK went surfing in Hawaii in Jan. (another avid surfer) (Someday I'm going to learn how to make paragraphs.) Some oddities: the last 2 messages between SM and JM were text messages, could be he didn't want what he had to say heard by others? Odd that he still wasn't home as of 5:57 and had been gone since noon, that he would leave the house after being home 2 hrs. or less at 7:47pm. Is there a way to erase the record of a landline call? I mean we know they didn't exchange any calls after 5:57pm via cellphones, so if they were lured out of the house on some other pretense,it would have to be via landline. could the perp get back in the house and delete this call? Just another thought about MM and SB not being concerned earlier, I thought of the comment SM made to SB about her not being one of the four, there might have been an underlying understanding not to interfere in their lives, businesswise or personal. I want to look up just what time it would be dark in Fallbrook that night.

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  114. Sunset was 5:24pm on feb 4, 2010 in san diego

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  115. I forgot to add, JM wasn't home at 5:57pm, so assuming it was almost dark at that time, he must have been driving with the headlights on, would it or would it not trigger the neighbors surveillance camera when he drove in the driveway. I suppose it could have been the wrong angle. I always had the impression the Izuzu drove front end straight out of the driveway vs backing out of the driveway, when they left at 7:47pm

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  116. Thinking about this further. Joe might have been kidnapped. the texts to Summer might not have been from him but someone impersonating.. Someone might have come to the house to pick up Summer and the kids, with the headlights out on the vehicle as not to alert her. Either the door was unlocked or he had JM's key. If you look at it this way, it looks bad. The dogs were outside and she had no choice but to just leave them there.

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  117. Hi 10:28, yeah I can see why that might be odd about seeming to be in the same location at both times, like maybe he was there on his cell at 4:45 PM and then (who knows went home picked up SM and boys sometime between that time and the neighbor’s video captures their Izuzu vehicle leaving their driveway) then was back there sometime around 8:28 PM at that same location. Plus, it’s not the towers closest to their house right, it’s seven miles up the highway in the vicinity of that bridge. So yeah, was he meeting someone there maybe or why there? It could have been anywhere, a store parking lot, a gas station, you know why there. If it doesn’t take from 7:47 PM to 8:28 PM like you said, to get seven miles up the highway, then yeah I’d think they were doing something for a minute, getting gas maybe, talking over something before he made the call, or something. Getting something to eat I don’t know, if CM claims he heard background noises like they could have been at a restaurant on any voicemail JM left on that 8:28 PM call, then what did he mistake those “restaurant noises” as highway noises or the car radio? Or was the 8:28 PM call to CM not this “restaurant noises” call, but something else that’s been rehashed so many times by bloggers that there were a couple times CM got a call from him around the time they disappeared and the one minute call from JM to CM at 8:28 PM includes other details.

    I think that might sound likely too, that they took Hwy 76 back towards San Clemente rather than heading straight for the border on the 15. Or maybe not, maybe they just headed up that seven miles on Hwy 76 for something that included their cell phone activity, and then turned around and went back and hopped on the 15. I don’t see why he couldn’t have headed back towards the beach cities if there was somewhere he had to stop over there, I mean he would have known the place so well. I just think it’s interesting because never knowing that 76 information before, I would have just imagined they would have hopped on the 15 to get to the border being the closes equivalent of going up the 76 like towards the 5 to get to the border.

    I wonder if it’s significant that if you’re going to flee, that’s the last person you need to call, CM? Unless it was unrelated, and he remembered something he meant to mention at lunch, but I don’t know.

    So SM’s cell picked up activity up until the 6th before the battery may have went out? I mean I just figure it could be likely the cell battery went out because how could you be at two places at once if it’s them on that border video. Not that the border video wasn’t two days later, but I don’t know where they would / could have been hanging out only seven miles from their house.

    Yes, I think that’s right, that the cells could have pinged anywhere about 1.5 miles from the tower, not necessarily that old bridge, but maybe they wondered if it could have been that bridge, because the surrounding area in that 1.5 miles is that overgrown wild type plants kind of land, and hilly up and down.

    I would imagine you could park and walk somewhere near that bridge if it is a bike path walking path of some sort, otherwise how would you get there? Already be riding your bike or carpooling with other bikers, I don’t know.

    I don’t know about their green truck not being recorded pulling in yielding any clues. Yeah, it could be the angle of the neighbor’s camera didn’t capture it, or it was on the other side of the driveway from where the view of their side gate was, and I don’t know if the time of sunset would mean he definitely turned on lights either, some people don’t switch on lights knowing they only have a few miles to go and could still see enough with the fading sunlight, and maybe having older cars like they did they had to manually turn on lights rather than that automatic light feature they have now.

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  118. Thanks anon 6:34pm, per E insurance: california state law requires you must use headlights 30 minutes after sunset which was at 5:24pm that night. Sunset is about 1 hr from total darkness. 6:24pm would be dark. JM contacted SM at 5:57 so he was not home yet. I think he would have put his lights on about 5:57pm whether or not it was dark enough for the surveillance camera to pick it up or if it was the right angle, or if he came home later, there would almost have to be a reenactment done. I guess nothing can be determined about that, but it makes me think they might have been kidnapped. The Izuzu held 4 people, no more could fit, so if there was a kidnapping from the house, it was Summer and kids plus perp. Joey was probably captured first. I can't explain the border video, i don't see why there isn't some high tech camera that could make it clearer. On PBS they were trying to ID a Leonardo Davinci painting. They sent to to France where they can magnify it 200 times without distortion. Why can't something like that be done here? They could be held somewhere over the border against their will.

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  119. Hi 8:37, I agree, most (not all) but most unless they know they have a bad light and they’re trying to jerkily sneak by do turn their lights on. So it must be the neighbor’s camera picked up more towards the side gate, where that truck wasn’t parked, since that truck was probably parked on the right side of the driveway closest to the door. So it couldn't have been parked on the curb in front of their house and somebody moved it if MM really saw the Feb 5th paper like he claims and that could be taken as an indication that vehicle didn’t tire over the paper, then the truck would have been on the side closest to the door. Shown perhaps in the video showing Officer’s removing evidence, and MM showing Tim Miller around the home. And if he drove the Izuzu that day neighbor’s video would have gotten it coming home right, unless they didn’t release that information, but (I don’t know in the reenactment of Chic Fil A did they do a green truck?) or unless the neighbor’s video oddly cut out at that time too? Well I guess it is possible they came home and only their phones were gone between the four days, because there isn’t neighbor’s video after about 12 AM the night the disappeared right?

    I guess money, and permission, I would think, might be a reason why they can’t do a lot in this case. And not that it means they wouldn’t devote as much time, but the Sheriff handles a lot of unincorporated cities who opted not to have their own police department and not just that city.

    I don’t know about the dogs, I guess they could have asked someone to check in on them. Could that be what they were calling CM about? Or did they plan to be back? Because you could still make it look like you didn't plan to flee and not be totally heartless to basic water and food to live with dogs. How long can dogs go without food? Would it be possible to think you’re coming back within a couple of hours up to four days? But water at least right. Were the dog beds the ones MM mentions seeing in the shed the same dog beds they had in their home video where they're playing with the dogs? Can’t recall if there was 1 "bed" or 2 in that video, but there was at least 1. Were they indoor dogs? I would imagine Bear was an indoor dog at San Clemente, but maybe not in the new house since they had the new puppy. Or maybe they were outside dogs a portion of the time especially when workmen were in the house. Why do people put indoor dogs out, thinking they will be gone for a bit and want their dogs to be able to go to the bathroom? Could that mean they were planning to return? Maybe Bear sensed something (then again he was old) but you’d figure he had a connection with them, and died what 4 months or so after they vanished?

    I wonder if it's not strange that SM communicated with JM through TEXTS, maybe she wanted to get an ETA on him, but not necessarily talk to him. Like ask him a question on text but not hold her up to jump in the shower and wanted an answer waiting for her when she got out. Or perhaps she knew him to be with somebody at that hour and didn’t want to interrupt. Or hey if she really knew it was they’re last night, yeah she’d want to get ready especially if he was close to home. What could he have been doing, checking tires, water, gas, etc. But no because they were only driving to the border and leaving their car huh. Picking up something to eat? Meeting someone?

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  120. This might sound weird but I think it could be true. This might be related to JM and SM's past. Like being involved with investment groups or a little scamming, even from back in the 90's. Supposing at that time,it went too far and someone really got brutally murdered because of this situation. This persons family has lots of anger and lots of money, and were tracking it down, and blame JM and SM for what happened. The revenge scenario in other words. I think JM and SM could be forced to live in exile away from family and friends as a way to punish them. We can only pray that this person will relent and let them come home.

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  121. Hi, If someones kidnapped them from the home, I'm sure they would have done research as to usual activities, the dog etc. I don't think someone would ever enter that house with a 150# akita in it, and how could they know before entering where the dog was kept? Mcgyver M mentioned Summer told him recently that Bear was the family protector, and their guardian angel. Bear seemed to be unusually mild for an akita, they can be territorial and don't let other pets in, but Bear liked the new pup. I wonder how Bear reacted to strangers? Unless like I said before, Joe was taken first, and they came back in joes vehicle (I don't remember which vehicle Joe drove that day) to get Summer and kids and they were known by Summer and familiar with the dog. Someone on WS thought they went to a place to get toys, it was Summers last search online, childrens toys, and something went bad. Still no proof of anything

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  122. I don't think it was anything to do with toys. That doesn't explain the four days and the computer search relating to Mexico, travel, passports, children, etc. the week before That'd be an interesting timeline to see what was going on around that computer search day. That means they had a week in advance notice there was a possibility they may go into Mexico if it was them searching. Not like people planning to flee there for good, you'd have way more research if that were the case.

    I don't think the popcorn was necessarily from that day. JM's mother said there were drinks (possibly snacks) left upstairs that should have been dumped. Popcorn gets stale but you can leave it out. Doesn't seem like a big deal.

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  123. Hi 7:15pm poster, I waiver between voluntary missing and abduction, but I can see a weeks notice affecting their plans like you said. If it were an abduction, it would take a whole lot of planning and organizing on the perps part and a lot of staging and complications. No matter which way you look at it it is one big mystery. I've even thought the family is in on this and know they are ok. JMO the delay in reporting them missing was to be sure they got away safe and there were no clues. There would be an awfully good reason for this IMO, but I would do this for my family if I had to too

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  124. Their dog was older and overweight. Don't think he would be able to overpower a perp, but that doesn't seem the likely scenario anyway, with the computer search for Mexico, their car ending up there, and possibly them caught on video tape crossing.

    So what would take them into Mexico? From the state of their affairs it doesn't appear it was meant to be a permanent trip. What would prompt them to leave their cell phones behind in a possible odd way or odd location?

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  125. the only thing i can think of, they had a connection in mexico that they went to meet, and who knows where they are now, maybe in canada. i just wonder, did bear really die, or was he secretly taken to the family. don't mean to make light of this situation, but maybe bear lost wt, and had some streaks put in, would look like an entirely different dog. seriously i wonder if we will ever know what happened.

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  126. Wonder why mcGyverTV her friend the painter right, his Xmas Eve video of the family, seems to focus on Summer while she’s washing dishes by that kitchen sink the brother says he got in through, and then quickly moves the camera away to Joey and their oldest son, as if he didn’t want to be caught focusing in on Summer, plays it off, butters up Joey calling them their wannabe “Italian” names Giuseppe 1 and 2, Joseph corrects him with “G” in the tone of a husband who has a wife with some guy friend who probably had some kind of flirtation going on with Summer if not more at one point or an open door if she were into it and Joey probably suspects. Anyway then he pans back to Summer real quick as if nonchalant playing it off again spending only like two seconds on her as if disinterested moving the camera away from her real quick with Joseph right there, and plays it off again playing up to Joseph’s show off side talking about new 10 ft high ceilings, etc. Nobody could work it better than Summer though, all putting that extra hip action in her walk trying to get Joseph to buy her the dream chateau instead, then if that is her in the border video walking all casual like some seasoned border crosser for the guards and potential anybody who’d want to target them as non-locals. I don't think JM in that video he mentions trespassing as anything odd either, only meant nobody could see them trespassing checking out the house because there was nobody there.

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  127. Summer was hiding something it's obvious.......name changes, denial of her hispanic background, home schooling and self medicating. Quite clearly she wants to remain under the radar for some reason but why? I find it odd that she was so vocal about never wanting to go to Mexico because she deemed it too dangerous but then someone in the house is googling entry requirements for Mexico?

    When this story was first pitched to me it was the tale of an everyday "normal" nothing out of the ordinary family who vanish for no apparent reason. This however is NOT the case, Summer by all accounts was not an average married Mom. There are some very serious hints at a past she is running from or trying to hide, in my honest opinion......Summer crossed that border with the children, her husband is dead already. The motive? Perhaps her shady past was about to rear it's ugly head, who knows

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  128. Just thought, I wonder if they knew they were a target of some sort and that's why they left the beach house. Probably had a plan to take off if necessary but played normal like filming themselves on video and making home improvements. They had a young baby sitter at the beach house who posted on facebook that someone had started calling the cops on Summer at the beach house (Harrassment) and Summer got scared and didn't trust the neighbors there and could hardly wait to move away. I think someone was out to get them for something. They all slept in one room too, like maybe they were scared. and the symptoms JM had of stress was probably from worry. They were smart and I hope they got away but there's always a doubt. The meeting with Chase that day might have been to up the plans to disappear. I think maybe the families do know but are playing along. Just in case I wish the area under the old Bonsall bridge could be checked for remains, but I understand there are rattlesnakes in the area

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  129. I can't believe these people who want to make out like it's some big clue an amount you couldn't leave behind if you really had plenty socked away under the radar or like $100k is some huge amount. Give me a break with 2 possibly three boys if she was going to let him help his first to put through college, and more if they had more kids. Her not working, that their only back-up. If just one of them got a new car that money would have gone down by what 15 if you're lucky more like 22 to 30 g's for a new car, and it seemed they were riding their cars until the end, which wasn't even a big deal like they were sacrificing so much those were sturdy keeping up with the times cars they had. Then saving as much as you can for retirement, especially if you have no 401(k), no income coming in from working in your later years, etc. And fur coats and fancy shoes she could have just had in the house because she didn't want them to get ruined in the garage or pods. Woman might have collected them at one point and never worn them, or had a grandmother or something pass them onto her so they were important to her. One nice item like a cappuccino maker (if it was even pricey where they got it) isn't going to break the bank. Not like they had $700 dollar items laying around every inch of their house. The pretending to be Italian thing with your coffee maker is more odd. Their furniture looked basic make do in need of upgrade eventually like things you're not particularly fond of but put up with on her end. And a house listing is always lower than it really is, then they were probably competing against other bids especially for a foreclosure and if you really want it, put in an offer you hope will be excepted. Then you got your real estate agent advising you if you want it to offer something they can't refuse or whatever because they've seen this type of thing before, etc. Not like he went out and bought that work of art one she wanted.

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  130. Another missing family from michigan on abc news this am. google tim and sabrina medsker and 4 mo old son joshua. Similar to mcstays. self employed, ran a successful cleaning business. left in a hurry, all belongings left behind. Last phone call feb 16, they were planning a baby shower, no indication anything wrong. reported missing feb 23 LE is checking their computers. I believe it said their phone calls go to voicemail

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  131. At this point, I expect copycat "disappearances" to start happening. Family will set up website with Paypal for donations. Reward will stay suspiciously low. All "reasonable offers" to produce t.v. shows/segments will be entertained. I think the McStays have spawned a cottage industry. Sorry if that sounds cynical. Just beginning to calculate the money the McStays have made and still giggling that the reward for a missing family is still one thousand dollars. After millions have been banked.

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  132. Anonymous commenter at 7:03. There were a lot of hidden resources apparently. They owned land in South America, for one. These are not your average Americans, despite how most of these shows portray them. The fountain business had contracts with large hotel chains, some of these in the Middle East. A lot of the assets, money was under the radar (and I suspect off the tax forms).

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  133. someone postulated on the McStay website my theory of poisoning of Joseph by Summer. They have a post from Summer's sister finally, as well. Maybe a cult is targeting these families and scaring them into running?

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  134. The "three paradigms" that open up the site, Elaine, state definitively that the family had no dealings with a cult. It would have to be like that one Dean Koontz book---remember the one about the random persecution by a cult. But that's fiction. And not very believable fiction. I no longer think Summer is the "guilty party." Maybe five percent of me says maybe J.M. was murdered that first night and she's with someone else. Ninety-five percent of me says they're all alive and well. They'll be found eventually, though, because this story is so huge now it's beyond belief. I get queries on them now from practically every country on earth. Even African countries. If they ever were in South America, I bet they relocated to Scandinavia or somewhere like that. I bet they look a lot different.

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  135. BTW, they found the other couple - or rather they phoned their relatives. No further information at this time. I agree the M's can' stay hidden forever. Cheers!

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  136. Well, that's good news at least! I worry that the Jameson family disappearance won't end as prettily. That had to involve homicide. And there you might find a cult for real. There was serious religious confusion going on there (dad saw devils dancing on the roof, Mom told neighbors she was a witch). I think it's creepy they disappeared off a mountaintop, and that the last picture they took of their daughter was of her looking nervous on a large rock. It so reminded me of Isaac and Abraham. Creeped me the hell out.

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  137. I welcome poking holes in this scenario. It is hard to fit all the clues together and make a possibility in which you can't say to yourself well no that doesn't work because what about this other clue.

    So this is only an attempted idea and nothing against Summer only trying to make sense of the clues:

    Summer does a computer search for travel into Mexico because she's planning to flee with some other male. Not kill JM but run off. Might be interesting to do a search of the weather on the 4th. Was it equally as chilly as the night of the border tape crossing since if that's her and boys they seem to be dressed for how cold it was that border crossing night.

    Maybe she picked up this other guy, in which he did not get fingerprints on her Izuzu, and he had a car over the border.

    She texted JM on his way home later from his meeting with CM in order to get his estimated time of arrival. He returned home and they drove to where this other guy was waiting or somehow they met up all of them which might be unlikely. And why would JM's last call be to CM?

    Something went wrong and the other guy killed JM. So they ditched the cell phones and made a point not to do it by the border. JM put up a good fight, and that's why the later sighting at Mama Espinosa's the waiter saw this other guy who maybe had injuries and since the waiter saw Summer and the two boys, he assumed it was JM.

    So that's why she reluctantly left her beloved dog, and the house was seemingly left in disarray possibly hurriedly.

    They waited four days deciding if they were still going to do their original plan of going into Mexico, stake out the border to see when the best time to cross would be at night after a weekend when those with passes are returning home, and because she knew there was a slim chance but still a chance she might be asked to see her passport or any docs for boys, etc. so she wanted a crowd and to blend in.

    They took her car and left it at the border because it was the easiest way not to be seen since if they took a taxi, bus, train, rental car, stolen vehicle, or other way it would have opened more possibilities of someone seeing them. Though why would they lock the car? Maybe they were planning to come back, didn't want anything to get stolen, or out of habit.

    So another hole might be well if that motel registry in Mexico had a variation of JM's name like reversed Bryan Joseph why would some other guy sign his name, like could it have been her idea to make it look like he was alive. That might be unlikely.

    And maybe now it's easy for Summer to stay behind closed doors and live a life where she doesn't come in much contact with people.

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  138. IDK, they looked like such a nice family, however looks don't tell you what's going on in their lives or minds. On Jane Valez Mitchell last night, they mentioned the missing Mcstays similarities to the Michigan case (now solved) and Leonard Padillo bounty hunter in the Casey Anthony case said his opinion differs from most people, he feels the mcstays haven't left the US. I wish he could have given more opinions on why he thinks this way. I hope they are here somewhere alive an safe. My instinct tells me this is the case that they are here in the US ( until I change my mind again, lol)

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  139. I wonder why there was no mention of what the last text messages sent to Summer's phone were about? They must know because I remember reading many pages of evidence from the Casey Anthony case and text messages were in there, even the ones before Caylee went missing.

    Also, Michael McStay...something about him just seems fishy to me. I watched the video of Tim Miller at the McStay home and it just seemed as though M.M. was just rummaging through the house as he pleased and already seemed to know where everything was...like if he had been looking for something, hidden cash maybe??? Just seems too eager to talk for "everyone" and with no emotion...
    The other guy who didn't want to be on camera while Tim Miller was there, "Todd", who is he??

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  140. Mar 7 8:38 that would be a reason not to come back for any money.

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  141. In reply to MissyM I too am curious about the text messages to Summer and the exact times too. The other guy with Mike Mcstay in the Tim Miller interview was Summer's brother IIRC, his name is Scott and he is from Hawaii. I thought they both acted suspicious, when asked questions they both started talking at once and it was reallIy hard to understand what they were saying. I had wondered if they did that on purpose to be impossible to get any info. I thought maybe they actually had something to do with their disappearance but since have changed my mind. I think they do know their family is in hiding and putting on the act like they don't is nerve wracking, that's why the Tim Miller video seemed off.My theory is,someones wanted revenge on them for something and they were tipped off and fled. But there's always a doubt, they just won't search the Bonsall bridge area and maybe that's a good sign that LE thinks they are ok. IDK.

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  142. Anonymous, 9:44 a..m., on the Tim Miller video, there is another guy besides M.M. and Summer's brother. After the camera man introduces M.M. and the other guy, he goes to turn the camera to someone else and says, that's "Todd", he doesn't want to be on camera, and you never see the guy's face. Go check it out.

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  143. hi, ok I rewatched the video. Sorry, Summers brothers name is Kenneth. At the very end of the video when they go back into the house to get a notepad they show Todds face, the guy with the ball hat.He's on camera for about 30 sec.He must be a friend, I don't even recall him at all the last time I watched Now I don't find anyones actions suspicious, funny how I did last time.

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  144. Thinking about the T Miller video again, when they are showing Bear, I guess the question I had about how Bear would react to strangers is answered, didn't show any aggression to Tim Miller. If strangers entered the house, I don't think Bear would have reacted, however I think most people would be leary of him because of his size. But I think the family left of their own.

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  145. I think Bear in the Tim Miller video is trying to sniff around for his family. MM is interrupting him as he tries to go through spot to room and sniff fast because he's urgent to find them. Kind of weird MM calls the dog by their pet name for him and calls the youngest boy by their nickname for him as well.

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  146. In reply to near,if I allow someone in my home my dog is very submissive. If someone walks in without a family member saying it's ok, watch out buddy

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  147. Did JM own property in Costa Rica or Belize? Where is anything along those lines coming from? When did he purchase that property? Did he see it in person before he bought it? How did he get there that time? Did one of their real estate friends if any arrange the sale for him?

    Is it possible that JM was across the border the first night neighbor's video sees their vehicle leaving driveway, and she was on standby 4 days near the border on the CA side then some other male came over to escort her and kids over to meet JM? Awaiting documents perhaps?

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  148. the family, DK or CM might know the details of buying the property, I don't think it has been mentioned publicly. The friend of Joeys that lives in Costa Rica that was on the Laura Ling documentary, works in real estate. This sounds like a simple explanation of what happened. I hope they are ok.

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  149. Well that friend of JM who lives in CR made an odd comment on that Ling show. "I'm not lying" to you I haven't seen them or something like that. Not that he would have been the one for sure if any to assist in any real estate transactions. There were a few of her friends on that show that seemed kind of odd like one saying she had a wild streak or I don't know something like that.

    Still doesn't explain if they just went to check on an out of state property why no contact, notice, trail, etc.

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  150. Don't think the signature "questionable" as Summer's was because she was holding a child.

    Someone who is that anti-who am I, changing a name, wanting people to think she's actual fake date of birth she’s passing off to you, WHOLE generation younger not just shaving a few years, good solid decade right there... Dot, dot dot…

    Isn't going to always sign their name so YOU the average anybody can copy her signature, especially somebody who is a "closet" (not actually she's buying whatever she wants "nigger rich" 200 dollar a pair Ugg boot loving "online shopper PRO did I emphasize bargain hunter PRO" "know what's up chica" even though she can't buy a in her wildest dreams - let alone calm ones dream house RIGHT NOW - but mark my words someday gonna work towards it dream house, considering she's gotta husband who's gonna take the long road taking her where she wants to go - "I'll get some happiness out of it now" he's not as involved on the gross factor, snorting his nose, telling her to shut up in so many words snapping she humors him so she doesn’t deal with nonsense ego on and on trips, going barefoot on the dashboard flip flop short loving (not that it's making him look 10 years younger or 50 pounds lighter) etc. etc. etc. WOMAN… who didn't want to leave a trail, is not going to want you to pin down how her bank has her signature on file, yeah go ahead get a forgery wrong worst case is credit card company gonna contest it on her behalf.

    Beach towels purchase? Kind of odd? Unless she thought they could use them around their "makeshift" remodeling project of a house, and for the kids anyway tis the season when summer rolled along, or I don't know your better idea (insert here). Backpacks or any kind of carry-on (bolsas in Spanish perfect word fitting where they "were???" going) little boys look like they have backpacks on definitely in that border video.

    Who you gonna search? The kids who look like their backpacks are light, maybe a "coloring book" at most, walking past dogs, the male SUBTLE look back to her at 0:30?, yeah he's not going to be all obvious heading first into the guards with dogs, especially if she don't got all her papers, and maybe one of the kids "coming back" anyway right? If you really don't believe it JM in the border video all the more reason not to be as use to one another, ying and yang, on par, she knows every subtle move you got without words, etc. though you can tell she was pretty good at mile ahead what's next thinking to read the subtlest of head tilts.

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  151. Hi. I took offense at your phrase "nigger rich." But I posted your comment since you put so much thought and work into it otherwise.

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  152. It's an expression having to do with having a stash of cash in your pocket, but not necessarily a lifestyle spending it for show, nothing to do with race equality. A slang expression. Insert whatever alternative thesaurus expression translating to the same thing.

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  153. I figured that was the usage and you seemed too intelligent to be "getting off" on being able to slip it through, but I wanted to qualify my posting what you wrote. I'm a p.c. pussy sometimes. There, I just violated my own rule and wrote something that denigrates vaginas. Without meaning to denigrate vaginas. I'm sure black people use the expression as much as white people. I mean yours. And probably mine.

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  154. Well, I don't know about the timestamp of the Ross receipt versus any calls or computer searches for "homeopathic?" medicine related to anger.

    Around 2:11 PM? The home computer used to search for “Anger” from a homeopathic medicine company.

    A cell phone call (made from SM's phone?) to the homeopathic medicine company, but (she is?) told it does not exist.

    Then (not long after?) 2:36 PM? A credit card belonging to (SM or JM?) is used at Ross (in Vista?) to purchase beach bags, infant pajamas, and a jacket?

    It does seem an interesting timeline.

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  155. Bonnie Blue sounds like a fake name too. Maybe Summer made that name up also for another email address.

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  156. you need to all remember it was Mike McStay who wanted the area behind the home; in the mountains, "searched for their bodies". It is this statement alone as well as his intv's and attempts to take over his brothers business that needs to be examined.
    Saying you need to look for their bodies; when no one really knows they are dead; indicates a speech pattern of speaking in the past tense, ie he spoke of them as dead, and needing to be found. Then he took over his business. It's not rocket science. Who is Summer McStay? so many aliases so little time.

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  157. Thanks for the comment. I have become really cynical about this whole thing, probably because I definitely do NOT believe they are dead and they willingly disappeared. The idea that the reward has stayed so pathetically low when Mike McStay is trawling for business on the family website ("any serious offers will be entertains" quote unquote) leaves a REALLY bad taste in my mouth. I suspect the ransom is so DAMN LOW precisely because he knows they ARE alive and that going with the talk that they may be dead keeps interest in the story alive. I would even entertain the idea that this is all a mastermind hoax designed to raise money but I can't really believe that. I think they disappeared because they were either in danger (or believed they were--God knows they had some shady associates!) or--more likely--Summer McStay suffers from serious mental illness and they fled under a delusion. The aliases would fit right in with borderline personality disorder and that woman wanted as little social contact for her family as possible (home schooling, home births, described as a "hermit" by friends). So disappearing actually fits right in with her character. She just convinced J.M. to go along with it. And considering that Dad just got extradited as a wanted fugitive from Texas to Louisiana, maybe they didn't want to have to deal with that sort of headache anymore. I think they will be found in the next two years simply because this story exploded around the entire world. Probably they have done nothing wrong. If they had, we would have heard from the government by now, which I'm guessing knows EXACTLY where they are. But they are doing the right thing by not releasing that information if the McStays don't want to be found. That is completely their right.

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  158. I closely watched the Lisa Ling video tonight about the disappearance of the McStay family. What caught my attention was Lisa's interview with Jimbo Jensen at the bar La Vida Loca in Cocoa Beach Costa Rica. Remember, he is the "go to guy" in Cocoa Beach. There is a point in the interview when he is being asked a question about possibly seeing Summer. His vocal tone changes after making a big sigh and he covers the right side of his mouth with his right hand like he was trying to hide his face. Most of his vocalization was disconnected until that point and then there was, what appeared to me, emotion. I've watched that particular scene several times and can't shake the feeling that this guy knows something and he is trying to hide that fact. Check it out for yourselves.

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    Replies
    1. dan kavanaugh was arrested on may 1st, 2012 for battery. upon searching for updates for the mcstay family i have not seen anyone mention this news. i would like to know what people think of this new development.

      Delete
  159. Hi, you don't source your allegation about Dan Kavanaugh so I take it with a grain of salt. Or even less than that. I advise readers that this is just a comment from anyone and I put no stock in it and advise no one to read this as the truth without seeing any legitimate sourcing. Plus, the context of this alleged "battery" could have absolutely nothing to do with the discussion at hand, the "disappearance" of the McStay family. People might let you know what they think of this "new development" when you provide an iota of evidence it is an actual "development." I don't run down other people's allegations. I usually delete them if they're unsourced but I'll let this stand as an example of the sort of comment I find useless.

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  160. is there not cameras along the roads they took that investigators could look at and see who was in the vehicle exactly? and WHY would they not be reported way before 11 days so they could trace the cell phones?! how long does it take to get to mexico from where they live? and wouldnt you think theyd have to make stops for food & bathroom, ect? did NO ONE see them within those 4 days? clearly they did not grab food, they left everything out and left in a hurry.

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  161. This is really a sad case. So many questions and so few answers. It's been over 2 years. For sure their cellphones were discarded somewhere where they would ping off the Bonsall tower either by themselves or a perp. whoever didn't bother to shut the phones off. Considering this it looks like a crime to me. They don't seem like people who would hurt their family and friends like this on purpose. I hope you are right tho and that it was a willful disappearance, there is always hope.

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  162. Okay, wow. I have read everything here as this story has haunted me for a long time. I have my own theories now, based on what I have read. To be honest, I was lost before and had no theories, as being an animal lover I could not ever FATHOM leaving my beloved pets behind no matter what.

    Now, if JM was the instigator of this disappearance, he may have told SM that they would HAVE to leave the dogs behind if they were to make it look as though they truly disappeared. Either that or animals really don't mean as much to SM as you would have been led to believe. i dunno.

    Also, as far as them hiding somewhere, one child has a very distinct birthmark that would make it hard to hide him. Not to mention they both look just like their dad. Did they have it removed? Do they put some sort of make-up on it every day?

    My other theory of course has to do with the credibility of SM who may have a few problems. It's a proven fact that usually when a woman murders her husband, she poisons him. Usually slowly, till they are violently ill. DID she want away from him, did she make plans with someone else? I would hate to believe that, and I am sorry to be speculating so much.

    There is SO much more, but I have been reading all day, and I will have to come back to it. I just wish they would all be found safe. This is all so baffling.

    Oh, and even though I have watched all of the shows on this, I totally forgot who this DK is, but I went to his FB page (now private) and I noticed on January 5, 2010 he listed himself as in a relationship. That was the last listing of a new relationship. Almost a month to the day before they disappeared.

    Oh, and on JM's FB page, DK commented on January 6th 2011 on one of JM's wedding photos of him and his brother MM, " i honestly like both these guys."

    I don't know if you find that an odd thing to say almost a year later. I guess I was just chilled when reading it. It was like he was trying to convince people.

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  163. I've been thinking a lot about Summer lately, I believe the reason behind the homebirths is A Dr would probably be able to tell her true age, having children at her age is risky, there would be tests, lots of tests for a pregnant woman in her 40s in my opinion.

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  164. DK seems like a strong link, I reviewed the BBB website under the company's name and their seemed to be some shady dealings going on right around the time of the disappearance and it all involved DK having customers send payments by check instead of using credit cards and then not responding to the customers calls after the checks had cleared.....

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  165. It seems to me that they went to purchase something they found on Craig's List. They were then murdered. Her phone is out there by the cell tower somewhere, obviously. Then someone took the car, maybe an associate of the person who did the crime, and used it to drive to Mexico.
    Or maybe they were on their way somewhere and stopped to help someone and were then rolled and killed, and someone took the car to Mexico.
    The bodies are to be found by the cellphone or were. People sometimes go move them. But if they fled to Mexico, maybe not.

    These are the simplest solutions. In my mind, the probability that they are dead is at least 90%.

    As far as all of the SM-affair-murder scenarios--don't think they're likely at all. Too complicated. She could be having an affair or two if she has borderline PD. That's certainly reasonable, but I've known people over the years who cheat a lot and are just discrete about it or their husbands don't want to deal with it and ignore it.

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  166. I remain convinced they're alive. You don't stop for an hour by the side of the road a few miles from your home to meet someone from CL in the middle of nowhere. You pick a safe place. Plus that isn't even a recognizable place for a rendezvous. They were there for quite some time in the night. I think because J.M. pulled over to talk on his phone for quite some time. There was probably more than the phones police know about. They probably already had acquired throw-away phones and were using them. Maybe J.M. switched to his "usual" phone to trigger caller i.d. because his business associate wasn't picking up (not seeing a recognizable number). Yeah, usually Occam's razor works but I don't think so in this case. Or maybe it does. Because the fact that they had just researched passport requirements for Mexico indicates they were most likely planning on going there. I think they were frustrated after declaring bankruptcy and trying to start over. And then they had to face those lawsuits because of the business in common with P.M. (Joseph's father). Plus the economy was seriously tanking. So it's stay here and get poorer and poorer. Or jet with the cash. And don't forget they do own land in South America. And from most sources they were not cash poor and who knows what other assets, undeclared or otherwise. If someone lured them out for a fake CL ad, don't you think they would have stolen their credit cards and used them. Don't you think they would have fenced that vehicle? I haven't believed the "affair" scenario for some time. Since the Laura Ling documentary, which I found rather a revelation. And if someone took the vehicle, do you really think they went shopping and bought those large kid's toys purchased during the first few days missing? I think the toys were to keep the kids occupied and out of the adults' hair while they finalized their details, almost certainly in a stateside motel or hotel. Or a friend's house. But hotel or motel more likely.

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  167. I see (I'm anonymous from July 3). You do make some very interesting points there. There is of course the case of Olivia Newton John's half-Korean ex-bf, Mcdermott. Apparently, he really is in Mexico and alive. I thought for sure he had drowned during the fishing trip when I first heard about his case. So, the first round definitely goes to you.

    Can't bear the thought of those kids being hurt, so the desire to find a satisfying conclusion is also in your favor.

    And there is absolutely no evidence of their deaths just now, so it's 3-0.

    But they have not used their credit cards, and they have a 100k in the bank that is untouched.
    "Joseph had $100000 in his bank account, where it remains untouched". In traditional police cases, this gives the murder theory a point. Anytime people abandon money and never return for it, it's because they are dead in the minds of LE. 3-1

    I don't think that people who are fixing up a home themselves can afford to leave 100k like that. If they had taken all of the money and put their dogs in a kennel and said they were 'going to the grand canyon' for a week, they would have created much less media attention; plus their dogs wouldn't have suffered or potentially died (in their minds), and they would have had a lot of time to really hide without arousing suspicion. They left in the middle of fixing up a very important new house minus 100k. It's not like they were driving a brand new car. They just don't look like people who could afford to walk away from that kind of money, and there's little evidence they really had any sort of big stash. I have a few houses. I fixed up the most recent one too, just like they did--a foreclosure--and moved into it. My wife and I did most of the work, but we could never afford to walk away from 100k like that. What about our respective families?
    Why would I bust my ass to fix the house up only to disappear like that--even if the plan to leave was sudden, I think someone would back out of it and find a more reasonable way to leave.

    Other Scenarios which lead inevitable to death

    The first is the Richard Kuklinski scenario

    JM might have been in good spirits because he thought he was going to get some money through a deal. In comes someone like the Ice Man Richard Kuklinski who used to rope in shady folks when he wasn't helping out the Gambino crime family by killing folks. He roped in a Pharmacist, Paul Hoffman, among many others.
    "Paul Hoffman a pharmacist, went to meet Richard taking $25000 with him to make a deal to purchase a hijacked shipment" and was never seen again.

    He promised this guy deal after deal until the man was practically salivating about all of the money he was going to make and Kuklinski didn't have any of the supposed goods. Instead, he just rolled the guy and killed him. They never found the body.

    Now, most of us would never be involved in a deal like that, so there's a certain basic immunity we all have from this sort of thing, but JM certainly was enough into the shady deals that he availed himself of this sort of thing, and he wouldn't tell anyone for obvious reasons.

    Then there's the Leonard Lake angle brought to us by Summer who was storming Craigslist for deals.
    ..continued.

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  168. ...continued


    Leonard Lake was a crazy mofo. He feigned interest in a guy selling a car, murdered him and stole his identity. I think he also killed an entire family (husband/wife/toddler) by saying he either wanted to buy or sell a stereo system. He used newspaper ads or word of mouth, and he killed neighbors, strangers and relatives. Using Craiglist has an inherent risk, although it is definitely minute.

    Then there's the Jimmy Burke angle. They pissed off the wrong guy.

    It's possible they were simply offed by an unknown enemy they had bad business dealings with prior. And by unknown, I mean unknown to everyone but them and were lured there for something--some kind of gain--by someone they knew.

    There is also the Witness Protection program angle. I have no idea how this would figure into anything, but you always have to consider it when people just disappear the way they did, and they are involved in some way with shady businesses. The reason I toss it in there is because, if you were going into such a program, they would force you to do all of the things they did and prevent all contact with relatives.


    The final angle is the Patrick Mcdermott angle, which is of course your angle. The reason I don't like this one is similar to the reason I don't 9/11 conspiracy theories. It's just too good.

    They need accomplices who don't talk and who feign sadness and concern, who never get drunk and say anything to anyone.

    They need to have an airtight plan, and with Summer that seems impossible. They must abandon all rational thought (again, leaving 100k in the and the dogs at home starving and abandoning most important contact with family members they knew their entire lives). The plan is complicated, yet Summer is very disorganized.

    They get throwaway phones but can't put the dogs in a kennel and can't find an excuse to get 100k in cash.
    These seem to be incompatible.

    Like I said, we'll see. In a few years, maybe they will turn up, and I hope this webpage is still here so we can celebrate. I don't want to think about the other scenarios--not with those adorable little boys involved.

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  169. You reason (and write) very well.

    I found your play by play on our competing theories and the scoring very amusing.

    Inasmuch as anything where real human lives might (and I stress might) have been snuffed out can be "amusing."

    I didn't know about the murderers you describe above. I think I heard the Gambino associate's name before but didn't know he had "side work." Should surprise me. Sociopaths usually do have sidework. Everyone is a potentional mark in their universe.

    You're right about the accomplices but I think they told very few, possibly only one. I don't think the family knows at all. I think there's bad blood and alienation there. It's not like the family would admit that and shame themselves on national t.v. Or else it's the borderline personality disorder "splitting" phenomenon where Summer somehow elicited a promise from her husband to make a clean break.

    The mother seems pretty destroyed with worry and sometimes I "buy" M.M.'s concern. But he's sort of turned this into a cottage industry and that "Any reasonable offer" to produce segments on his bro left a really bad taste in my mouth. Plus that ridiculously low reward.

    I don't think WPP is a real consideration at all. Your comment actually sent me looking for updates on this case yesterday and the Websleuths site (a great one for details on this case and many others) has a very good rationale why this is almost certainly not WPP.

    Strangely enough, almost everything the people said there I had said here sometimes back (and I'm not really knowledgable abou the program) people who seemed to really know what they're talking about said. The things that would have happened (dogs could go with them) and the things that wouldn't have happened (shows being produced on them--family members could know they were in WPP just not where). So don't think it's that at all. Plus, we would have seen someone close to them prosecuted by now and people would have put two and two together.

    CONTINUED BELOW, I'M A WINDBAG...

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  170. I think if you look at Patrick McStay's legal woes (and he's supposedly in the BIGHOUSE, not just a regular prison now) I think you begin to see a major reason they wanted to escape their old lives. I'm sure he doesn't know where they are. They wanted to put behind them that business they had in common with him, the one that was so shady. Court dates were put on hold when the McStays disappeared. How convenient. I really think it was the idea of throwing good money after bad and just realizing they're lives were on a downward spiral here, they had the stigma of the bankruptcy and their options were shrinking everyday.

    I reasoned as you did before, precisely because I couldn't conceive of them having enough cash or resources to liquidate for an escape.

    But the Laura Ling documentary was a revelation to me.

    His mother and business associate D.K. both say he was a genius at bankrolling money and carried a lot in cash. This is also worrisome if one thinks others knew this--because of the murder for profit angle you mention. DK said he could have had a few hundred thousand. This can go a long way in some countries. And he's not the kind to let dust settle on his wings. He's probably online as Ricardo Estevez today making money, making book.

    I'm sure you know it's very rare for an entire family to be murdered and disappear. Usually, this just happens in the house. I say "just" but you know what I mean. There would have been fingerprints they missed somewhere in that vehicle no matter how much they wiped. There's almost always a few. The police say they found none in that vehicle. So that's revealing. If they're the only ones in that vehicle and it's within walking distance of the border...it's like Occam's razor territory. Looks like a fish, swims like a fish, blows bubbles like a fish...it's probably a fish.

    WAIT..THERE'S EVEN MORE...SEE BELOW...

    A

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  171. s weird as it is to think they pulled a disappearing act, I believe that is exactly what happened.

    If you combine S.M.'s weird antisocial tendencies (which are there in spades) and their tendency to cocoon and live against society's grain, I totally see this happen. They bought that land in South America for a reason.

    Yeah, it seems weird to let 100K in a bank account and the dogs there which they knew someone would tend to--and we don't even know if they were giving them food and water during those first four nights before the probably crossover.

    Others could be in on this. I think M.M. has made a small fortune off this. It's like a cottage industry now.

    It would be amazing (but not beyond belief) that they engineered this whole disappearance together as a hoax--possibly a completely legal enterprise. But probably M.M. doesn't really know. Or I think the charitable donations would mail fraud and possibly bring other charges.

    If you believe D.K. and his mother, about the money J.M. had, then this isn't all that long a time for them to be off the grid. It sounds like a long time if you imagine tragedy, but if they'rd hiding out in Sao Paulo and living their lives under new names and speaking Spanish it's been what? Only a thousand days into a new life? People can stay mad a lot longer than that or stay away a lot longer than that. Especially when court cases are waiting here.

    I could never decide whether the fountain business was really a legitimate business making serious money for J.M. and his few employees. If you believe Websleuths he had some seriously huge contracts (I think one in the Middle East and some large hotel chains or casinos here). Don't quote me on that. But the idea was he was making money. But the site looked so amateurish to me when I went there a long time back. It looked like someone playing at being a serious businessman. But what do I know. Maybe his website wasn't the lead generator and he schmoozed like a champ. Maybe he did good work. I think that last phone call was J.M. "handling business" and bidding his friend a fond adieu.

    I think it's entirely possible the government knows exactly where the McStays are, but they aren't going to "out" them if there's nothing leading to extradition.

    And re: Patrick McStay, I really feel terrible for the guy. He's a gambling addict whose legal woes mostly stem from that. And now he's allegedly in the federal pen in Louisiana. Why would you send someone there (66 years old) with killers and rapists and such for writing bad checks. Someone linked to LA's laws to show this can happen. Louisiana "ain't playin." But I actually felt terrible for the dude when I read that. We need to prioritize better legally. They turn murderers free and lock up the bad check writer. Ay de mi! Happy holiday to you and yours, if you're American.

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  172. Wait. I do remember Leonard Lake and Ng. I did read and see a lot on that horrible duo. The videotaping of deaths, rapings, etc. I don't understand how educated people can be anti death-penalty if they know what these monsters do. I guess they see me as primitive for wanting to see them dead, but it's not even an "eye for an eye." Those are not human beings. They're like sharks that attack you in the ocean. Sociopaths can never change. Maybe if neuroscience advances a few centuries. But for now, monsters they are and monsters they remain. Any day they stay alive is another day they can sit in their jail cells and pleasurably relive all the horrible things they did to people. And it seems to bring peace to most family members when these creatures are permanently GONE.

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  173. I have spent the better part of the day reading through the comments here after watching Ling's report this morning. Lots of folks jumping on the BPD bandwagon these days and even if true of SM, it's a stretch to believe that her husband would have gone along with her delusions.

    I agree with WK in that they are all still alive and probably enjoying a quiet existence south of the border somewhere and I feel they fled due to failed financial obligations here and possible connections to PM's dealings. 100K and dogs are a mystery but they knew the dogs would eventually be fed and if they ever come out of hiding the 100K can be used to pay off whatever legal trouble they wind up in.

    It would appear a sort of cottage industry has sprung up around them but I noticed the disclaimer on brother MM's site:

    "Please consider assisting us in our efforts to bring home the Joseph McStay family by donating via Paypal:
    All donations are going toward our operating expenses, such as flyers, private investigative work, a potential reward fund, and any other expenses that arise. All donations are monitored by a third party not related to the family for integrity. Questions or concerns can be emailed to him directly: nick@mcstayfamily.org."

    Maybe he changed the wording after hearing speculation on where the $$ is going? Anyhow, great site and I will continue to check back here for updates and insights.

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  174. Thanks Katydid, for your insightful comments and the clarification about ethical dealing by M.M. I'll admit I never saw that qualification on donations. Let's hope the third party is also an ethical, disinterested individual and not say, some chum of M.M. I have no idea what types of money they've received. It could be thousands. It could be millions. I too used that term "cottage industry" with regard to the McStays. If this wasn't all a perfectly orchestrated hoax (and I don't believe that at all) someone will probably get the idea that you can get rich off such things and possibly hoax the media. There are some money-hungry people out there. I had no idea many people were jumping on the borderline personality disorder theory (if that's an accurate assessment). When I first posted it, I Googled it and couldn't find anyone else saying that. I just kept trying to make the crazy facts fit what had apparently "happened." And that one weirdly made sense. Plus, I'm glad I came to that conclusion because that theory means the kids are also alive and well. I think they wanted to get the hell out of Dodge and particularly get the hell away from P.M., who did ultimately go down in flames (FEDERAL prison in LA). I felt bad when I read they put an old guy like that in federal prison for writing a few back checks (allegedly because of gambling addiction). But Louisiana "ain't playin." Someone else with a great understanding of BPD (KMitchell) just left a comment on the BPD post correcting someone who stated erroneously that ("BDD improves with age," symptoms vanish etc.) and she also pointed out that the people in LTRs with these people (if they last) are usually totally co-dependent and just go along with the irrational ideas and flights. But in this case J.M. had his own very solid reasons for leaving America. It was that or stay here and hemorrhage more money. I'm not saying they didn't love P.M. but I think they eventually realized he was a millstone, an albatross round their necks, and he was gonna sink them one way or another. I bet they rued the day they ever listening to his ideas about going into business together. A gambling addict (it is alleged he is) will sink any business if he's in charge of it. We're probably only seeing the tip of the iceberg of the McStays' financial woes. I laud their attempt to "start over" with the house in Fallbrook but they must have just realized "this ain't happenin" at a certain point and cut their losses and run. Wherever they are, I bet Joseph's still making hella money, not just living off the nest egg. Probably online under a new alias. He's whip smart and I can't see him sitting with his wings furled. He's such a doer.

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  175. BPD has been coming up more frequently in the last year or so. A higher profile case is the recent death of Mary Kennedy being labeled as Borderline by her husband after she hanged herself. SM is a peculiar character to be sure. Lots of unanswered questions and identity changes. It isn't out of the question that her past factored in to their disappearance but I don't think it's the primary reason.

    Has it ever been determined what their business dealings with PM were exactly? A sketchy real estate scheme that netted quick bucks or were they caught up in something more serious because PM had outright fleeced people out of a lot of cash?

    I find the scenario of Joseph being involved in an online business intriguing. Odds are there is at least one other person besides SM who is assisting and keeping his identity secret. Then again their appearance could be surgically and/or cosmetically altered as such that they may be hiding in plain sight. If transactions are mostly done online he could very well be into something lucrative.

    The one point that sticks with me though is why the area of the last cell phone pings was not thoroughly searched. I don't believe anything would be found there but it would go a long way in putting the theory some maintain of foul play to rest. Her phone was getting text messages for a couple of days but is there any way to see if those messages were retrieved or read? Most likely after his last call to his business partner they tossed their cells and used tracfones or whatever but again, a search of the area is justifiable.

    Whatever their reasons, I'll bet they never expected to find themselves in the company of Amelia Earhart :-)

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  176. I don't know the Kennedy case. I'll have to familiarize myself later. Yes, borderline personality disorder is really mystifing. An identity disorder in which one cannot even keep to an identity. The true chameleons. Some theorists link it to heightened criminality, some seem not to do so. I think it was the painfully oppressive present rather than the past that drove them into hiding. Plastic surgery is pretty extreme (and sometimes a horrific proposition if it's gotten "underground" or "on the cheap."). I hope they'd be smart enough to avoid those risks but then I don't see Summer going anywhere near a doctor unless she thought she was dying. She seems to have avoided them (and dentists) and even obstetricians like the plague. When the McStays contracted the services of that big search and rescue/search and recover firm, I think they planned on doing just that--searching the Bonsall (sp?) area. It sounds like a vegetative nightmare. But I find it hard to believe if someone killed them (or some of them there) they would then drive the vehicle down "border way" as well. And I do think they tossed tracfones or switched phones there or just trashed them and got new ones later. If they even use them--depending on their degree of paranoia. I think you're right that they probably had ZERO idea their disppearance would become a modern day Amelia Earhort or Mary Celeste. But that show on ID is HUGELY popular and a whole family disappearing puzzles everyone. But knowing what you know now, I'm sure you realize when you see that show how much the odd circumstances of the McStays' lives were downplayed, how they were presented as your ordinary middle class Americans. They weren't total bohemians or loonies but they were assuredly not that. All it takes is a little bit of strangeness or daring and some people are willing to happily flout almost all of life's "conventions," which I think is exactly what they did. They liked their money lol. They didn't like the prospect of being poor and being constantly pummeled by lawsuits and the whole P.M. nightmare, IMHO anyway. And for more on the business dealings, you can visit the Websleuths site, which is a very good site. And people dug up a lot of the business dealings, business history. I bet some people did search that Bonsall area by the way. The case is so hugely famous that I'm sure some extremely curious people took it on themselves by now. It seems almost mathematically certain to my mind. I'm not sure how expansive that overgrown (ravine?) there is. I bet the kids rarely if ever go in public. Because they're much more likely to be recognized than their parents, which I think both look Latin. Well, Summer has that heritage but Joseph with its dark Irish heritage can pass too, I'm sure. Hope the Rosetta stone Spanish dvds served them well. Hope they're happy.

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  177. "who I think both look Latin*," and "Joseph with HIS (not its lol!) dark Irish heritage." I need to proofread better when I post comments!

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  178. Just one more thing- the DOJ still lists JM and SM as Voluntary Missing Adults http://tinyurl.com/c7swxbf

    Would they be able to come back even if they wanted to? Would they want an ongoing media circus for the foreseeable future and beyond? There is no evidence of a crime but would they be liable for back taxes etc.?

    If it were me,I think I'd make sure I stayed missing. I would send some kind of smoke signal up to a loved one just to let them know I was OK. That's got to be the hardest thing for anyone not have any contact whatsoever with family or friends.

    Thanks for the opportunity to speculate and vent about this once again.

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  179. I enjoy comments, Katydid, so "one more thing" isn't necessary. ;-) Well, maybe not the ones that are attacking me like I sometimes get that start out "You EEDJOT!!..." lol. I don't really know the answers to all your questions--media circus would probably die down pretty fast after an initial amazement. They would owe any back taxes. Unless they're paying their taxes as expatriates even now. About that listing at the DOJ: I've always said it's quite possible the U.S. government knows exactly where they are but is just respecting their privacy, which would be the right and legal thing to do unless they had charges or were facing extradition. People can legally choose to disappear. We don't really know if there's bad blood (or even "irrational" thinking) between the other McStays and the missing ones. They might not release that info to the public if it was something deeply (and/or hotly--as in anger) personal. J.M.'s mother really seems sincere and not to know where they are--and heartbroken and terrified. M.M. seems genuine too at most times to me. I'm not saying there's any negative judgment AT ALL in what I'm about to say but...I've always felt Summer's family was too quiet. Like they knew something or knew they were all safe. That could be totally wrong but I always felt that. And feeling is not thinking...I can't defend it rationally.

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  180. Just now, I had a confused moment and thought, "But would tax returns be public record?" And found this answer online:

    "Tax returns are not public record; they are private. Tax returns contain confidential information that is not readily available to the public. With the increasing number of online tax filing services, some information is being used and sold publicly, but that is not advocated by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Unless there is a legal reason to disclose information on a tax return, the information is not available for public access."
    O

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  181. I'd like to see a timeline of interviews given and incidents of any family member's public comments.If people spoke in interviews in the beginning and then refused after a certain point you wonder why. It's the people that AREN'T talking that I find interesting in this case. Also sounds possible they could be paying their taxes from wherever they are- we wouldn't know if the IRS is not obligated to disclose that info to the public!

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  182. Hi Jaye. I agree that's sort of illuminating. It seems mostly to be Michael McStay and sometimes J.M.'s mother. S.M.'s side of the family (with the exception of the one sister) seems strangely reticent. The detectives on this case early on said they understood that was just a matter of temperament, the difference in public "participation." But it does make you wonder, "Do they know something?" Yeah, the solution to the mystery might turn out to be merely that some people chose to drop off the grid, SEVERELY off the grid. For whatever rational or irrational reasons. If so, they must be laughing their asses off at all our wild theories. You'd think decency would encourage them to at least put people's minds at ease. That's why I tend to lean towards the irrationality/mental illness thing. I think most people lean towards the criminality thing--either on the part of one or both of the McStays, either perpetrated by them--or against them. But it really looks like voluntary disappearance to me. Still. Money tanked and they fled south like snowbirds. The only ones they really owe an explanation to is their loved ones and family. The rest of us aren't owed anything by way of explanation really. And we wouldn't know if there's bad blood there that made them no longer care about those people. A lot of strange things go on in families, and grudges can last years--decades even.

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  183. For the person who asked where to find the Ling documentary to watch it online, maybe try this link: http://fullepisode.info/e-investigates-the-family-who-vanished-2011/

    I didn't actually download it. I hope it's legit because I couldn't find it on Hulu or YouTube. And I'm guessing you already checked E!'s site? Probably they only have a "teaser" up?

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  184. Oh Cat, I just realized that was you. Sorry. Hope that link works.

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  185. I have suddenly become obsessed with this case and have been reading everything I can find. The one thing I have not seen yet is the E! special. I have my DVR set to record all re-runs of the show, so I'm crossing my fingers to be able to catch it that way. Anyway, I have several thoughts/questions, as most everyone does. I am extremely curious as to the contents of the house. We know about eggs, popcorn bowls, fur coats, high heals, no shoes, no hangers, 2 mens shirts etc. What I haven't read anything about is the children's clothing, hats and things. Which brings me to the dirty diaper found. Were there any packages of clean diapers or baby wipes? This may seem very insignificant, but as a mother of 6, I think it could be a clue. When I leave the house for a quick trip, I may throw a diaper in my purse and run out the door. If I'm leaving for an extended period, let's say 4+ days, I would grab the whole package. If these folks were trying to disappear, I would think they wouldn't want to run the risk of going to the store for diapers, or anything for that matter. The 4 days before the border video is most puzzling for me. If they checked into motel/hotel, someone would have come forward by now saying, "hey, they were at my motel". Same goes for restaurants. They certainly had to eat in those 4 days and no one at all on the planet has said they saw them anywhere in that time frame. Which leads me to speculate that they were being helped by someone. Of course they could have packed food and hid out in the vehicle for those days, but I find that highly unlikely with the ages of the children. That would be very difficult. All it would take is one tight lipped person to hide them out for those days. Here's my theory. I believe J.M. went to Mexico first, probably driven by the one person helper. S.M. and children stayed back at this person's house until J.M. got things in order south of the border. The helper then escorted S.M. and kids to meet up with J.M., which explains why family didn't think it was J.M. in the video. But who is the "helper"?? I'm very curious if anyone associated with the family has had their passports checked out by LE. If LE can even lawfully do that, not sure about that aspect. In my mind though, there is still a possibility that J.M. is out of the picture. I hope that isn't the case, but believe it to be possible. Oh so many questions!

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  186. Out of curiosity william (sorry, I'm slowly making my way through the posts)----why do you think they left so fast or was that possibly staged?!

    In my honest, honest opinion (and I'm just a newbie here, but I've been following the case from the beginning)---I think either SM or JM became deceased, one way or another and that is the reason for the quickness of leaving.

    I'm also not counting DK out at all. If SM did in fact of BPD (split personality even), I wonder if her and DK had a relationship?! I can't see a murder happening of all 4 of them. Mainly b/c of the lack of evidence. There is NOTHING to convince me that there was a crime?!?!! Just interested in your opinion :) I love all the thoughts here!

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  187. Hi Stacy. I think people make too much of the "suddenness" of their leaving. I think they wanted to escape their lives for some time. And if you're going to leave a house that you haven't yet fixed up as livable, it's going to look like that. I think there was a deterioration of mental state (Summer esp. but both to a degree) and the state of the house reflected that. If you're going to escape your leaves and not come back you can leave a mess. I don't think the word "sudden" really means anything in this context. It's always funny to mew when writers start a sentence with "Suddenly, he..." In a sense, everything happens suddenly all the time in life. :-)

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  188. escape your lives* (not leaves lol)...typo.

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  189. Couldn't it be possible that SM was never actually a legal citizen of the U.S.?

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  190. Hi Commenter at 11:09. I think that would probably have come out and I think that would almost certainly be specified on the Department of Justice Missing Persons site. It would probably say something there like "foreign national" with a specification.

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  191. I recently left a couple comments on another post of yours, and after reading more and more...the questions flow though my head and I can't keep this family out of my mind. I'm certainly still skeptical of the "painter" and ANY business partner of Joseph's, the fact that Summer never wants to be seen (insanely odd that she changes her name and age and enthnicity while also NEVER appearing once in any photos on Joseph's facebook-even in the wedding album) and why all of Joseph's friends are constantly texting Summer. My theory of the departure is now that Joseph went to his meeting where something disturbing was revealed, he returned home and told the family they needed to leave immediately. My second theory (only my 2nd because i dont want it to be true) is that Summer planned the death of Joseph.

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  192. I think they're all fine, oddly enough. I think the scarcity of Summer's photos speaks to her BPD...those people are paranoid about anyone knowing their "true identity." I had one in my life so I've experienced this maddening trait firsthand. I can't see S.M. killing her husband--and find it very hard to imagine her having him killed. I think she relie(d)(s) very deeply on him, especially to hide her dysfunctional side and help her hide from the world, which I believe is her number one priority--to hide from the world.

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  193. I agree with some I live in San Clemente and most contractors have never heard of him and no record of him on CSLB (contractors web site)and I know contractors in Vegas and no one has heard of him. Pool contractors dont make that kind of money and no one caries that much money. What up with Summers' aliases and age thing. In fairness actors/models do that kind of thing but she ain't either. Just seems to be that he was trying to be a big shot and maybe a fake referral and took a deposit for a job in a high end hotel or casino and coulden't deliver and spent the money and Veny the Knuchle Buster found him on the run and he paid him a visit. Or the Aliens have him.. My Crystal Ball is in the shop anyhow. Too much Drama for this post..

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  194. lol. supposedly some big contracts were verified (including international ones) but I don't know either. the whole thing looked like a pipe dream when i saw the site/advertising. wannabe stuff.

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  195. WK what big contracts or owner would engage with someone without a contractors license workers comp or lability. The bonding of such jobs of that size would be huge and belive me not someone working out of his garage. I call BS and if so those so called big contracts would be suspect if verified. I was watching a piece in which he was showong videos of big name fountains and a piece of land and saying "with the good lord willing" his hopeful retirement site? One thing for sure find his supppliers and you will find out who he did business with and that would be a good start. But I suspect there's none. maybe a bus accident i've flown over a lot of Baja and there are a lot of cars busses trucks over the side of mountains. I still think his wife is not up & up past associations with troubled ex's and not being honest with her age and many name changes. Just messed with the wrong people and poof!

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